02 Long Range Population Forecasting — original pdf

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A Look at Austin’s Future Population & Employment: Delphi, Trends, and Imagine Austin (DTI) Forecast Austin Planning | February 3, 2026 Project Background What is the DTI Forecast? Delphi Trends Imagine Austin Historical Population Estimated Population Projected Population 3 DTI Forecast Background  The city demographer produces city-level population projections.  City of Austin staff identified a need for small area forecasts.  The first DTI Forecast was produced in 2012 and updated in 2017.  City of Austin staff further identified a need for more consistent forecasts across departments.  Following the production of updated citywide projections using 2020 census data and new methodology, the DTI Forecast update was initiated. 4 DTI Project Timeline May 2024 Summer 2024 Fall 2024 Spring 2025 Summer 2025 DTI Project Kickoff Housing Unit Verification Departmental Data Collection Population Projections 5 Austin is projected to grow to between 1.3 and 1.7 million by 2060. City of Austin Population Projections, 2020 - 2060 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2,173,205 1,740,710 1,655,896 1,154,516 1,253,762 1,310,989 1,336,769 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 High Migration Scenario 2010s Migration Scenario Prior Projection Half 2010s Migration Scenario 6 DTI Project Timeline May 2024 Summer 2024 Fall 2024 Spring 2025 Summer 2025 DTI Project Kickoff Housing Unit Verification Departmental Data Collection Population Projections Employment Projections DTI Polygon Definition Workshop Tools Development 7 Employment in Austin is projected to grow to nearly 1.25 million jobs by 2060. City of Austin Employment Projections, 2020-2060 1,010,007 1,128,223 1,203,284 1,245,703 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 722,772 655,190 576,193 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Actual LODES Employment Projected Employment 8 Defining Small Areas for DTI Forecast Small areas converted into DTI polygons using the following criteria: • Build from 2020 census tract boundaries • Cover all City of Austin jurisdictions: full and limited purpose and extra- territorial jurisdiction (ETJ) • Aim for an average population of 10,000 • Make compact and contiguous • Avoid splitting established neighborhoods where possible 9 Preparing DTI Workshop Tools Population Trends and Projections Department Data & Contextual Layers Propensity for Change Index Employment Trends and Projections 10 DTI Project Timeline May 2024 Summer 2024 Fall 2024 Spring 2025 Summer 2025 DTI Project Kickoff Housing Unit Verification Departmental Data Collection Population Projections Employment Projections DTI Polygon Definition Workshop Tools Development 13 DTI Workshops Final Datasets Published External Partner Review Dashboard and Maps Created Dissemination to Departments 11 The Delphi Process Twelve CoA departments were engaged for participation in discussions. Austin Water 13 workshops Austin Planning Austin Fire Austin Housing Austin Economic Development 12 DTI Forecast: Population Austin’s population is projected to densify in the core Forecasted Population Density 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 14 Forecasted Population Density 2060 2020 20402050 2030 15 Austin’s population is projected to grow by over 300,000 and expand farther East Forecasted Total Population 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 16 Forecasted Total Population 2060 2020 20402050 2030 17 Forecasted Numeric Change in Population, 2020-2060 18 Forecasted Percent Change in Population, 2020-2060 19 DTI Forecast: Employment Downtown and other existing job hubs are forecasted to grow as new employment centers emerge Forecasted Job Density 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 21 Forecasted Job Density 2060 2020 20402050 2030 22 Austin is projected to add over 500,000 jobs by 2060 Forecasted Total Jobs 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 23 Forecasted Total Jobs 2060 2020 20402050 2030 24 Forecasted Numeric Change in Jobs, 2020-2060 25 Forecasted Percent Change in Jobs, 2020-2060 26 Population along light rail corridor forecasted to grow by nearly 100,000 with increased density 27 Visit our DTI Forecast Storymap Collection 28 Thank you! Lila Valencia, Ph.D. City Demographer lila.valencia@austintexas.gov 29