03.03 CAMPO TAC Travel Demand Update — original pdf
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Technical Advisory Committee Meeting June 27, 2022 ITEM 5: DISCUSSION ON NEW 2020 CAMPO TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL UPDATE 2020Travel Demand Model Update Schedule Today WA End 8/1/2023 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2023 WA Start 11/22/2021 2022 Data Development Demographic Data and Network Update Model Development and Calibration Up to Six TWG Meetings Documentation /Training Work Completed • Established Technical Working Group (TWG) • Established Stakeholders Group • Completed Covid Impact Review • Completed Census Block/Traffic Analysis Zone review and adjustments • Completed Control Total Memo TWG and Stakeholder Group • Technical Working Group Provides Direction and review for Modeling team Consist of TxDOT, AECOM, TTI, State Demographers office, Capital Metro and CARTS • Stakeholder Group Consist of Counties, Cities and Chambers of Commerce in the Model Area Provides Demographic and Employment forecast data and location information Demographic Forecast Control Totals Fast population growth continues Regional annual population growth rate is 2.37% 2.4 million population (or 1 million families) will be added to the region, or equivalently the current population will be doubled by 2050 Hays County and Williamson County have the highest growth rates, 3.48% and 3.93% Employment Forecast Control Totals Strong economic trend remains Regional employment growth outpaces population growth at an annual growth rate of 2.69% Additional 1.2 million jobs will be created by 2050, more than doubling the current regional employment Hays County and Williamson County have the highest employment growth rates, 4.68% and 3.65%, but Travis County adds most jobs (0.6 million) Moving Forward • Update 2015 Network to 2020 Conditions • Collect/input Stakeholder data into correct year TAZ’s • Prepare UrbanSIM for forecast runs • Hold second TWG meeting Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Today 2023 WA End 8/1/2023 Demographic Data and Network Update Model Development and Calibration Documentation /Training WA Start 11/22/2021 2022 Data Development TWG Meetings • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Technical Advisory Committee Meeting April 24, 2023 ITEM 8: DISCUSSION ON CAMPO TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL UPDATE 2020Travel Demand Model Update Schedule Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Today WA End 8/1/2023 2023 Demographic Data and Network Update Model Development and Calibration Documentation /Training WA Start 11/22/2021 2022 Data Development TWG Meetings Work Completed • Held third TWG meeting on March 29, 2023 • Completed final (3rd) verification of demographic forecast results by stakeholders/TWG/TAC members end of March 2023 • Completed 2030 and 2050 forecast demographics and network updates (pending final confirmation review) Moving Forward • Continue 2020 base year calibration • Complete 2050 forecast network review • Setup 2025, 2030 and 2050 forecast datasets and start model runs Demographic Forecast Totals County Name Population 2020 2025 2030 2050 2020-2050 Annual Growth % Bastrop 97,216 117,175 167,704 184,520 Burnet 49,130 51,990 54,494 62,658 Caldwell 45,883 49,772 58,412 69,133 Hays 241,067 292,867 356,239 765,751 Travis 1,290,188 1,416,887 1,539,244 1,978,903 Williamson 609,017 720,688 857,312 1,699,283 CAMPO 2,332,501 2,649,379 3,033,405 4,760,248 2.16% 0.81% 1.38% 3.93% 1.44% 3.48% 2.41% Employment Forecast Totals County Name Population 2020 2025 2030 2050 2020-2050 Annual Growth % Bastrop 97,216 117,175 167,704 184,520 Burnet 49,130 51,990 54,494 62,658 Caldwell 45,883 49,772 58,412 69,133 Hays 241,067 292,867 356,239 765,751 Travis 1,290,188 1,416,887 1,539,244 1,978,903 Williamson 609,017 720,688 857,312 1,699,283 CAMPO 2,332,501 2,649,379 3,033,405 4,760,248 2.16% 0.81% 1.38% 3.93% 1.44% 3.48% 2.41% Technical Advisory Committee Meeting October 16, 2023 ITEM 3: UPDATE ON THE 2050 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL • Completed 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2050 Model review and approval July 31, 2023 Work Completed • CAMPO staff received model training July 28, 2023, from AECOM • Approved 2050 model received August 1, 2023 Model Improvement well • Model matches traffic counts and transit ridership very • Updated model script for each model step • Improved run time • Several improvements to Mode Choice which improved Transit assignment • Highway network improved • Update 2030 and 2050 highway networks with fiscally constrained projects Moving Forward • Setup 2030 and 2050 datasets and start model runs • Finalize completed 2050 model for RTP use