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Population Change and Demographic Trends Population Change and Demographic Trends in Austin in Austin Community Development Commission Housing Committee November 18, 2025 The city of Austin is the 13th most populous U.S. city and the principal city of the Austin Metro Area, the 4th fastest-growing region in the country. 2 Population Change Population Change The Austin metro area is now the 4th fastest-growing large metro in the country, sliding downward after holding the top spot between 2010-2022. 2024 Population Numeric Change, 2023-2024 Percent Change, 2023-2024 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Raleigh-Cary, NC Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Jacksonville, FL .Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL .Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Vintage Population Estimates. 2,940,513 7,796,182 1,562,009 2,550,637 8,344,032 2,883,370 1,760,548 6,457,988 2,398,871 2,763,006 75,969 198,171 39,165 58,019 177,922 61,176 37,350 123,471 44,586 47,297 2.65 2.61 2.57 2.33 2.18 2.17 2.17 1.95 1.89 1.74 4 Austin has a long-sustained history of growth, but recent growth is slowing. ▪ Austin had been doubling its population every 20-25 years. Austin Population, 1870 to 2030 ▪ Austin grew by nearly 3% annually between 2010 and 2020. ▪ Between 2020-2024, Austin grew by less than 2%. ▪ Internal estimates indicate in 2024, Austin had 1,035,002 residents. Historical Population Estimated Population Projected Population 5 Rapid growth in the region is driven by suburban cities, which are among the nation’s fastest growing places. U.S. Ranking Cities 2024 Population Numeric Change, 2023-2024 Percent Change, 2023-2024 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13 18 49 71 75 Princeton, TX Fulshear, TX Leesburg, FL Celina, TX Anna, TX Haines City, FL Foley, AL Fate, TX Rosemount, MN Garner, NC Hutto, TX Leander, TX Manor, TX Georgetown, TX Kyle, TX 37,019 54,629 37,815 51,661 31,986 42,073 28,043 27,467 30,581 39,345 42,661 87,511 21,500 101,344 65,833 8,683 11,596 5,902 7,961 4,077 4,535 3,012 2,801 2,927 3,691 3,681 7,004 1,175 4,613 2,962 30.6 26.9 18.5 18.2 14.6 12.1 12.0 11.4 10.6 10.4 9.4 8.7 5.8 4.8 4.7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Vintage Population Estimates. 6 Migration continues to drive growth in Austin, with significant impacts on housing and where people live. Average Shares of Population Change, 2011-2021 ▪ Migration contributes on average over 70% of all population growth. ▪ Migration-driven growth can have immediate impacts. ▪ Housing unit development rates are not keeping pace with household formation rates. Unit Development Rate 25.5% Household Formation Rate 26.5% 7 7 Drivers of Growth ▪ Migration continues to be a major component of growth to the Austin metro area, but in a different sense. ▪ International migration made up nearly half of all growth in the Austin metro area between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024. ▪ Domestic migration is at an all time low. ▪ Natural increase remains relatively stable. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2024. Domestic Migration 24% Natural Increase 28% Int'l Migration 48% Components of Population Change, Austin Metro, 2023-2024 8 Travis County growth is slower than in other Austin metro counties but leads in growth among international migrants. Without international migration, the Travis would have experienced overall population decline in 2024. County Population Estimate Change, 2023-2024 Components of Change July 1, 2023 July 1, 2024 Number Percent Natural Increase Domestic Migration International Migration Travis 1,348,043 1,363,767 15,724 Williamson Hays Bastrop Caldwell 701,640 281,697 111,131 50,107 727,480 25,840 292,029 10,332 114,931 52,430 3,800 2,323 1.2 3.7 3.7 3.4 4.6 62% 16% 15% 12% 8% -86% 60% 72% 83% 83% 124% 26% 13% 6% 9% Domestic migration continues to boost growth to other counties within the Austin Metro. Caldwell County ranked 9th among the nation’s fastest-growing counties between 2023 and 2024, with most of its growth stemming from domestic migration. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2024. 9 Even as the core densifies, substantial growth is also occurring in outlying areas of the city and county. 2000 2010 2020 10 Even as Austin adds more jobs, it has a smaller share of total metro jobs, fewer employees living and working in Austin, and more Austinites working outside the city. Austin Jobs and Work Flows 76.1% 74.3% 25.7% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 68.6% 68.4% 31.6% 66.4% 64.6% Austin share of metro jobs Live and work in Austin 35.4% Live in Austin, work elsewhere 2002 2012 2022 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, On the Map Work Flows, 2002, 2012, & 2022. 11 11 Growth in household formation outpaced growth in housing units and population last decade. Recent units are being added faster. Total units added and unit, population, and household formation growth rates. 45% 40% 35% e t a R h t w o r G 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 42.1% 38.2% 27.4% 28.1% 22.3% 21.1% 26.5% 25.5% 21.0% 59,557 77,640 90,175 49,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - d e d d A s t i n U g n s u o H i 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2024 Housing Units Added Households Housing Units Population in Households 12 Demographic Shifts Demographic Shifts Demographic shifts in Austin last decade are unique, distinct from national and state trends. Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, NH 0.1% Some Other Race, NH 0.5% Two or More Races, NH 3.9% Asian, NH 8.9% Hispanic or Latino 32.5% American Indian and Alaska Native, NH 0.2% Black or African American, NH 6.9% White, NH 47.1% ▪ The NH White population is the largest driver of growth in Austin. ▪ The Asian population is the fastest- growing single race group. ▪ The Hispanic population contributed 20% of total growth last decade even as it’s share of the total population declined for the first time. ▪ The Black population grew, but at a very slow rate and continued to shrink in share of the total population. 14 How do these demographic shifts show up in Austin households? Austin is a majority renter and non-family household city. There are fewer Black and Latino children and Black and Latino family households with children in Austin today. Over a 1/3 of Austin households are made up of people living alone. Those who live alone tend to be renters, younger, white, and male. 15 Affordability Challenges Affordability Challenges Growth in costs has outpaced growth in incomes in Austin, disproportionately impacting households of color. Median household incomes in Austin grew by 21% between 2014 and 2024, growing from $77,759 to $90,430 (in 2024) dollars) and declined between 2023 and 2024. Median home sale prices in Austin grew by 40% between 2014 to 2024, from $239,900 to $572,400. Rents in Austin grew by 33% between 2013 to 2023, rising from $1,324 to $1,764, but have been declining since August 2022. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; ABoR Market Report; Note: dollar figures in 2023 dollars. 17 Growth in costs has outpaced growth in incomes in Austin, disproportionately impacting households of color. Incomes of Black and Hispanic households grew fastest, but White household incomes remain 1.6 and 1.4 times greater than Black households and Latinx households and 2.2 and 1.95 times greater than Black and Latinx family households, respectively. While 38% of Austin households are housing cost burdened, housing costs burden 54% and 40% of Black and Hispanic households and 1 in 5 Black and Latinx households are extremely housing cost burdened. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; University of Washington, Self-Sufficiency Standard Data 18 18 Affordability challenges are disproportionately impacting Black and Latino families. About 1 in 5 Black and Hispanic households have extreme housing cost burden, spending 50% plus of their income on housing. $ Percent Cost Burden by Race/Ethnicity in Austin, 2024 Cost Burden Own Cost Burden Rent Extreme Cost Burden (spend over 50% on housing) Black 22.3%v 59.5% 24.0%^ Hispanic 22.4%v 54.3%^ White Asian 22.1%v 39.2%v 17.9%v 25.5%v 19.4% 13.5%v 9.5%v Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses 2010, 2020; American Community Survey 2024 1-Year Estimates 19 20 Homeownership in Austin has declined or stagnated for all households. Homeownership in Austin by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2024 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 49.5% 41.2% 40.1% 32.0% 21.7% Black Asian Hispanic White All Households 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2020 figure from 2020 Census 20 Austin area families are weighing their options when choosing a place to live in the region. Austin Kyle Buda Hutto Pflugerville Round Rock Georgetown Cedar Park Leander Median Home Price (Aug 2025) Homeownership Rate Average Commute Time (minutes) $550,000 $297,450 $338,000 $338,995 $405,000 $412,330 $416,750 $418,500 $454,995 44% 68% 74% 79% 71% 56% 69% 67% 76% 24 35 28 30 27 24 28 26 30 21 Looking Ahead Looking Ahead Population Projections The Austin metro area is projected to surpass the San Antonio metro and grow to beyond 4 million by 2060. 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 7,667,565 6,000,000 7,169,702 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2,568,958 2,300,244 11,971,108 11,465,843 4,330,172 3,933,267 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 23 Population growth is projected to vary across the region, with Hays County growing most rapidly and Williamson and Travis adding the greatest numbers. 2020 Population 2060 Projection Numeric Change, 2020 - 2060 Percent Change, 2020 - 2060 Austin MSA County Bastrop Caldwell Hays Travis 98,072 45,947 243,990 191,798 78,872 587,211 1,296,604 2,137,635 93,726 32,925 343,221 841,031 719,025 Williamson 615,631 1,334,656 Austin Metro 2,300,244 4,330,172 2,029,928 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2025 Population Projections, Mid-Migration Scenario 96% 72% 141% 65% 117% 88% 24 Austin is projected to grow to between 1.3 and 1.7 million by 2060. City of Austin Population Projections, 2020 - 2060 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2,173,205 1,740,710 1,655,896 1,336,769 1,154,516 1,253,762 1,310,989 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Source: City of Austin, 2024 Population Projections High Migration Scenario 2010s Migration Scenario Prior Projection Half 2010s Migration Scenario 25 Challenges ▪ Austin’s population, housing, and jobs have been losing share in the region. ▪ Continued geographic segregation is yielding a farther eastward movement of the Eastern Crescent ▪ Unique pattern of growth among Hispanic and Black population, especially among children ▪ Persistent racial disparities in key socioeconomic indicators ▪ Disproportionate impact of decreasing affordability with implications on homeownership and wealth-building 26 Opportunities ▪ Austin has been leading the nation in housing development, impacting rental prices at a time when these have been increasing across the nation. Austin has strong employment despite slower job growth and still holds a healthy share of the jobs in the region. Austin has a relatively young and highly educated workforce; opportunities to remain in place could produce population momentum. ▪ Once in a generation infrastructure projects could get more people to the places they want to be. Austin has numerous enriching places for communities to gather which will become increasingly important as household sizes shrink and more people live alone. ▪ ▪ ▪ 27 Demographic Data Resources: City of Austin Demographics Online Hub austintexas.gov/demographics Quick Stats Demographic Profiles for various geographies Interactive maps and story maps Library with additional resources Subscribe to emails and data request form 29 Thank you! Lila Valencia, Ph.D. City Demographer lila.Valencia@austintexas.gov 30