Item 5: Presentation from Joep Meijer, theRightenvironment — original pdf

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The Austin Climate Protection Plan 2014 – intent and implications Joep Meijer, CEO The Right Environment Co-Founder Climate Buddies, Austin resident 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 About this presentation •This presentation is about intent, interpretation, potential implications •None of the data presented is vetted by Austin Energy •It is a framing document •It includes recommendations tocreate clarity about the relation of the ACCP2014 and the Taskforce recommendations 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 10 2009 Travis County 15,000,000 You Proposed Austin Climate Protection Plan 2014 Direct greenhouse gas emissions Expressed in metric tons CO2eq 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 -300 Improving the Climate Generation Home Solar PV 7 Community solar projects 2 Utility scale wind projects 5 Community wind projects Solar for 500 African families and farmers Use NET Positive home – 8 solar panels, < 2,000 kWh Electric car – 12 solar panels , 12,000 miles Sequestration 2000 Trees planted in Mala Atlanta 1000 Trees planting in Amazonas 10 hectares Forest preservation in Costa Rica Me + wife Proposed Austin Climate Protection Plan 2014 Direct greenhouse gas emissions Expressed in metric tons CO2eq 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 -300 Participants speak up! Susan Adams - When my family started the carbon diet program, we felt like we were doing pretty well and had little to learn about improving our carbon footprint. Were we wrong! We lost more than 20,000 pounds on the carbon diet and see the world through different eyes. The program outlined all kinds of simple ways to reduce our carbon footprint, while reducing our bills at the same time. The meetings were a great way to hear what actions other people were taking and to get their ideas and support. Carbon Diet Program Lose 5,000 lbs of your carbon footprint in 6 weeks! 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 -300 Interfaith Energy Action Team Becoming Carbon Positive – a manual for houses of worship 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 2009 GHG impact 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Travis County 2009 greenhouse gas emissions per sector Cars and trucks Austin Energy Other electrcity Natural gas Landfill Semiconductors Lime manufacturing Off-road vehicles 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Stakeholders •Energy (52%) –Austin Energy (36%) –Third party owned CHP (8%) –Natural gas (8%) •Transportation (36%) –Cars and trucks (98%) –Off-road vehicles (2%) •Waste and manufacturing (12%) –Landfill (5%) –Semiconductor (4%) –Lime manufacturing (3%) Community Climate Leadership Group Program oversight Technical Advisory Sector Groups Planning and implementation City and stakeholder representation Transportation Energy Manufacturing Waste City Council Decision making Office of Sustainability Program management Community Climate Leadership Group Program oversight Draft Role and Responsibilities Decision making •Community Liaison and communication vehicle between technical advisory groups and the community •Collect public input through web / in person interaction •Overall leadership for how the sector plans fit together •Setting interim targets •Determining a schedule for progress reports and updates •Reviewing work and progress of technical advisory groups 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Timeline •Adoption by city council – April 10th 2014 •Installation of Stakeholder groups •Progress report to council, September 2014 •Plan approval by city council, March 2015 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 -300 Austin Energy Generation ~5,000,000 metric tons What are options for generation to get to ZERO Use What are options to flatten the demand curve? What are options to reduce demand? How much demand will EV require? Sequestration Any legit options for offsetting? Carbon Capture as add on technology for fossil generation? Proposed Austin Climate Protection Plan 2014 Direct greenhouse gas emissions Expressed in metric tons CO2eq 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 2050 ZERO 15 Million metric tons CO2e Business as usual Reduction Proposed Austin Climate Protection Plan 2014 – Net Zero Community-wide by 2050 achieve this goal as soon as it is feasible emissions reductions accomplished sooner are more important and valuable for our city’s climate protection efforts. “sooner” Stabilized 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Steady glide path to NET ZERO Year CO2e performance index Δ (%) AE Carbon intensity (CO2e/kWh) following glide path Existing reduction goal (%) 2005 100 1.17 2010 88.9 11.1 1.04 2015 77.8 22.2 0.91 2020 66.7 33.3 0.78 20 ACPP2007 2025 55.6 44.4 0.65 2030 44.4 55.6 0.52 2035 33.3 66.7 0.39 2040 22.2 77.8 0.26 2045 11.1 88.9 0.13 2050 0.0 100.0 0.00 100 ACPP2014 ACPP2007 fall short of meeting ACPP2014 goals 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Should we do more with Energy? •Think about what 2050 would look like –All people: 1,000,000 now; 2.8% growth (today) would add 265% more people –400,000+ existing buildings retrofitted –All new homes / neighborhoods only use renewable electricity and make most or all themselves –All transportation electric: 1,000,000 cars (2013) –All manufacturing is carbon neutral –No more emission from waste treatment –Optimized Energy Productivity 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Which sector is more difficult to implement? •Energy •Transportation •Manufacturing •Waste 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Which sector is easier to implement? •Energy –Austin Energy: •One owner •Full decision making power •Control both expenses and income •Relevance: 35% of all GHG emissions This is a unique opportunity compared to the other 3 sectors 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Others slower, Austin Energy faster 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Goals in case other sectors go slower CO2e performance index, steadily declining Compensate for lagging other sectors, or Better performance of AE Generation Portfolio Year 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2005 100 100 100 100 100 100 101 2010 88.9 87.9 86.8 84.8 82.7 80.6 79.6 2015 77.8 75.7 73.7 69.5 65.4 61.3 58.1 2020 66.7 63.6 60.5 54.3 48.1 41.9 36.7 2025 55.6 51.4 47.3 39.0 30.8 22.5 15.3 2030 44.4 39.3 34.1 23.8 13.5 3.2 -6.1 2035 33.3 27.1 21.0 8.6 -3.8 -16.2 -27.6 2040 22.2 15.0 7.8 -6.7 -21.1 -35.6 -49.0 2045 11.1 2.9 -5.4 -21.9 -38.4 -54.9 -70.4 2050 0.0 -9.3 -18.6 -37.1 -55.7 -74.3 -91.9 Disclaimer: estimates! not AE data! 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Goals •Use for target setting: where @ what year •Choose ambition –For your horizon, 2025, index range 55-15, or reduction of 45-85% GHG emissions –Example : NET ZERO, 2035 25-30% faster than steady 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Create GHG Map existing portfolio commitments 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 First draft attempt - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Mmetric tons of CO2e AE Portfolio retirements and proposed additions New gas 800MW Sandhill new Sandhill existing Decker Fayette Disclaimer: estimates! not AE data! 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 First draft attempt Disclaimer: estimates! not AE data! 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 ACPP2014 Implications •Any plant that emits GHG today can not be in operations by 2050 •Any new GHG emitting plant has to fit within the chosen ambition pathway •Possible escape: capture GHG (cost and performance) or offset (reliability) ACPP2007 says: carbon neutrality for any new carbon based generation. 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Is there room for new fossil fuel based generation ? Year CO2e performance index; steady glide path to 2050 No new fossil fuel plant scenario, planned closures proceed as planned Planned retirements + new gas 2005 100 100 100 2010 88.9 .. .. 2015 77.8 .. .. 2020 66.7 90.0 130 2025 55.6 24.0 64.0 2030 44.4 24.0 64.0 2035 33.3 24.0 64.0 2040 22.2 24.0 64.0 2045 11.1 24.0 64.0 2050 0.0 24.0 64.0 Disclaimer: estimates! not AE data! Decker Fayette New gas 800MW 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Is there room for new fossil fuel based generation ? Year CO2e performance index No new fossil fuel plant scenario, planned closures proceed as planned Planned retirements + new gas 2005 100 100 100 2010 88.9 .. .. 2015 77.8 .. .. 2020 66.7 90.0 130 2025 55.6 24.0 64.0 2030 44.4 24.0 64.0 2035 33.3 24.0 64.0 2040 22.2 24.0 64.0 2045 11.1 24.0 64.0 2050 0.0 24.0 64.0 Disclaimer: estimates! not AE data! Decker Fayette New gas 800MW Retiring Decker and Fayette meets goals till 2040 with all new generation zero GHG 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Is there room for new fossil fuel based generation ? Year CO2e performance index No new fossil fuel plant scenario, planned closures proceed as planned Planned retirements + new gas 2005 100 100 100 2010 88.9 .. .. 2015 77.8 .. .. 2020 66.7 90.0 130 2025 55.6 24.0 64.0 2030 44.4 24.0 64.0 2035 33.3 24.0 64.0 2040 22.2 24.0 64.0 2045 11.1 24.0 64.0 2050 0.0 34.0 64.0 Disclaimer: estimates! not AE data! Decker Fayette New gas 800MW Adding 800 MW new gas makes puts us behind the steady decline path from ~2022 and on 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Are we on track today? We need to catch up: 7.5% behind 2005-2012 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Direct GHG are the norm, but… •Current GHG accounting typically includes direct emissions (burning fuel, process related) •No indirect emissions for exploration and mining (fracking) •No capital goods •No infrastructure (generation, distribution) 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Example: Sandhill expansion EPA permit request dec 2013 •Table 3-4 Annual GHG Emissions - Total Project shows transparency. The GHG emissions include "Natural Gas PIPELINE Fugitives" shows it is almost entirely methane. •A good start, but the reporting requirement should have added "Natural Gas Hydraulic Fracturing and Recovery Fugitives". •Science is not settled; range expected between ~2% (current EPA estimate) and up to 17%. •Difference coal and natural gas emissions (EPA) (100 year): 95.52 vs 53.06 kg CO2e/mmBtu (Δ -44%) •2% emission = 25 kg CO2e : total 78, also leackage from coal mining, same order of magnitude •17% emissions =216 kg CO2e total 269 (Δ +182%) 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 GHG emissions life time •GHG stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years •We are still breathing the CO2 emitted by our founding fathers •Emission reductions today are better than reductions tomorrow 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 ACPP2014 Intent going forward •Always consider climate impact when making decisions about energy resource and usage planning (CO2e performance index) •Take actions that move us closer to the net zero target, not away 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Indentify the downward options 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 You know all this! •Stimulate voluntary action by businesses and residents so that they invest and do their part •Provide income based incentives •Work with end users to control load and load curve to control cost and GHG emissions •Make Greenchoice pricing attractive and not expensive knowing it is cheaper today and has less risk and compliance cost associated with it •Exhaust EE: how much is there, how fast can we get it, how cheap is it, how needs to be involved in getting it done •On the cheap menu: insulate all residential attics in the next 5 years, solar screens, caulking and stripping; replace washers and dryers •Develop a program to retrofit all existing homes and business in Austin (without having to pay for it) (ecofys aggressive retrofit are cheaper than CCS, low retrofit scenario etc., bond program) •Make all new homes energy producers (Net Zero is planning in the Austin building code) (monthly bills for residents will be lower. •Make all transportation electric (introduce two-way charging, build more charging infrastructure around town, time of use pricing) •….. 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 One example 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 One example: EV battery •Peak shaving during the day •More demand at night •Perfect match to add more wind 1,000,000 registered cars (TRAVIS 2013) 24kWH battery (LEAF); 80% available; 19,200,000 kWh per day storage; equals 55% of one average day of use in AE territory in 2012 10% of cars EV = 5.5% storage capacity paid for by the market 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Know DER sources, use Energy Productivity and GHG Productivity as KPI’s. 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Unlock the potential of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Examples of DER: EE, DR, DS, EV, storage, Microgrid, … Question to be answered: •How much is out there? •How fast can we get it? •Who is responsible for getting it? •What are the costs and savings involved? 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 US: Up to 30% cheap •http://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/electric_power_and_natural_gas/latest_thinking/unlocking_energy_efficiency_in_the_us_economy 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Unlock the potential of EE, DR, DES, EV •Exhaust all options first at a price lower than –Average generation cost? –Cost of operation Fayette? –New gas + sequestration? •Incentives options that are not cost effective to share burden with market, to create market, to drive cost down •Serve all customer groups (2012 AE data) Residential Commercial Industrial Public Street & Highway Government Entities 34% 36% 21% 0.4% 8% 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Market is changing - total cost of ownership of users •Paying a loan for NET ZERO homes is cheaper than paying utility bills for the duration of a mortgage •Car payment for an electric vehicle + fuel cost is lower than driving a comparable car We will see more and more customer owned distributed generation We need to plan for EV integration and optimization 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 -300 Austin Energy ~5,000,000 metric tons What are options for both generation and use to get to ZERO? How fast can we do that? Who needs to be involved? What are the cost and savings? How are they divided between Austin Energy and it’s customers? Proposed Austin Climate Protection Plan 2014 Direct greenhouse gas emissions Expressed in metric tons CO2eq 6/4/2014 Austin Generation Resource Planning Taskforce Meijer, ACPP2014 Recommendation to the Taskforce •Use a carbon performance index going forward •Develop a resource plan for getting to NET ZERO by: –As soon as feasible (ACPP2014) –Sooner is preferred (ACPP2014) •2030 •2035 •2040 •2045 –2050 Steady glide path to 2050 (but no later then.. ACPP2014)