04 Demographic Trends Staff Presentation — original pdf

Backup

Austin Population Growth and Demographic Trends Planning Commission October 21, 2024 Content Austin’s Population Growth Areas of Change Austin’s Unique Diversity Austin Concurrencies Austin’s Population Growth Level Setting • • • • Austin is the 11th largest U.S. city and the principal city of the Austin metro region, the 2nd fastest-growing region in the country. Austin had been doubling in size every 20-25 years; recent growth is a fraction of historical rates. Even as it grows, Austin makes up a smaller share of the total region due to significant and rapid growth in the suburbs. • Migration, especially domestic migration, is the main driver of population growth to Austin, which places immediate pressures on infrastructure and resources, requiring a nimble response. Although a leader in job growth relative to other metros, like Austin’s population, its job growth has been slowing and jobs are more dispersed throughout the region, with smaller shares of Austinites living and working in Austin. 4 Population Change, 2010 to 2020 • Areas with greatest population growth mostly in suburban areas. • Similar growth also evident in areas within the City where dense growth was encouraged, such as downtown, the Domain, and the Mueller development. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2020. 5 Housing Unit Change, 2010 to 2020 • Strong association between population and housing unit growth. • Areas of high development along the edges of the city (NW: Lakeline; NE: Tech Ridge; SE: Onion Creek & north ABIA; SW: Circle C) were also areas of greater racial/ethnic diversity. • Fast-developing areas closer to the city core (Riverside, Holly, Mueller, Downtown) were areas where White population drove growth. • The Domain & West Campus saw fast-growth and increased diversity. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2020. 6 Austin is a city of dualities with concurrent growth gains and growing pains. Growth Gains Growing Pains Austin had been doubling its population every 20-25 years, recent growth is slower, and Austin makes up a smaller share of the region. Austin added an unprecedented number (90k+) of housing units between 2010 and 2020 and is on pace to surpass units added last decade. Austin population growth has yielded increased diversity with growth among all races and ethnicities. Austin is consistently among highest performers in job growth and has a young, highly educated workforce. Population growth has resulted in a farther eastward movement of population, primarily by families of color, to areas with fewer resources and greater opportunity costs. Housing unit growth in Austin is not keeping pace with household formation, and as home prices increase, homeownership rates have stagnated. Increased diversity in Austin obscures unique demographic shifts, including a declining share of Black and Hispanic Austinites and a population loss among Black and Latino children. Although Austin leads in many socio-economic indicators, job growth is slower, jobs are more dispersed, and significant racial disparities remain in most socio-economic indicators. 8 Areas of Change 2000 2010 2020 10 Black Population Change & Distribution Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2010, 2020. 11 Hispanic Population Change & Distribution Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2010, 2020. 12 White Population Change & Distribution Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2010, 2020. 13 Asian Population Change & Distribution Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2010, 2020. 14 Austin’s Unique Diversity Demographic shifts in Austin this last decade are unique and distinct from national and state shifts. 40% Austin vs 5% TX, US Over 1 in 5 20% Austin vs 50% of TX, US growth 1% of TX growth NH White population driving growth in Austin Asian population fastest-growing single race group Hispanic population contributed 20% of total growth last decade, share of total population declined for the first time. Black population also grew, but at very slow rate 16 Austin Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2010 & 2020 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 6.2% 0.2% 7.7% Hispanic or Latino 0.2% White, NH 0.5% 0.1% 3.9% 8.9% 35.1% Black or African American, NH 6.9% 32.5% American Indian and Alaska Native, NH Asian, NH Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, NH Some Other Race, NH Two or More Races, NH 48.7% 47.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Decennial Census, P.L. 94-171 File. Note: NH = Non-Hispanic 2010 2020 Despite growth in the child population, there are fewer Latino and Black children in Austin. Numeric Change in the Child Population, 2010-2020 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 ~11k in 10 yrs Hispanic or Latino Black or African American, NH Some Other Race, NH Two or More Races, NH White, NH Asian, NH Source: U.S. Census Bureau, P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data, 2010 and 2020. 18 Between 2010 and 2020, Austin added 9,312 families with children, but many declines were seen throughout the city, particularly in the Eastern Crescent. 19 Between 2010 and 2020, Austin lost nearly 900 Black families with children. Some of the biggest losses were seen in the LBJ, University Hills, MLK, and Rosewood neighborhoods. 20 Between 2010 and 2020, Austin lost nearly 1300 Latino families with children. The biggest losses were seen in the Pecan Springs, E. César Chávez, Holly, Govalle, E. Riverside, and Dove Springs neighborhoods. 21 Austin’s Concurrencies Bachelor degree attainment for White Austinites is 1.8 times greater than attainment for Hispanic Austinites. Percent of the Population 25 and Older with a Bachelor’s Degree and above 82.1% 71.9% 61.7% 45.3% 40.4% Austin Black Asian Hispanic White 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 69.3% 58.8% 43.7% 19.6% 17.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates; no data available for 2020 24 White household incomes in Austin are 1.6 times greater than African American household incomes. Austin Real Median Household Income (July 2024 $) $136,770 $107,377 $94,150 $73,577 $65,647 All Households Black Asian Hispanic White $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates; no data available for 2020 25 Homeownership in Austin has declined or stagnated for all households, and the homeownership gap between White and Black households has widened. Homeownership in Austin 60.0% 50.1% 43.5% 43.2% 35.8% 27.0% Black Asian Hispanic White All Households 52.1% 45.1% 42.3% 34.6% 32.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 26 Housing cost-burden disproportionately impacts renters, especially Hispanic & Black renters. Percent of Austin households experiencing housing cost-burden (spend over 30% of income on housing) 60.0% 54.7% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 29.8% Percent Cost Burden by Race/Ethnicity in Austin, 2023 51.2% Cost Burden Own Cost Burden Rent Extreme Cost Burden (spend over 50% on housing) Black 38.6% 60.1% 25.9% Hispanic 23.3% 49.7% White 23.7% 44.7% Asian 19.7% 29.0% 22.5% 19.5% 16.1% 11.3% 27 Owned Households Rented Households Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates; no data available for 2020. Future Growth in Texas and the Austin Metro Texas is projected to grow to between 36.7 and 44.4 million by 2060. The 4 largest metros will make up over 75% of this future population. Large Texas Metro Population Projections, 2020 - 2060 12.4 11.4 9.6 5.2 4.4 s n o i l l i M 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 7.6 7.1 4.8 2.6 2.3 2020 2025 2030 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington San Antonio-New Braunfels 2035 2040 Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands 2045 2050 2055 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 2060 San Antonio-Austin Metroplex Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2022 Population Projections, 2010-2020 Migration Scenario 29 Population growth is projected to vary across the region, with Hays County growing most rapidly and Williamson and Travis adding the greatest numbers. Austin MSA County 2020 Population 2060 Projection Numeric Change, 2020 - 2060 Percent Change, 2020 - 2060 Bastrop Caldwell Hays Travis Williamson Austin Metro 97,216 45,883 223,711 76,291 241,067 1,003,130 1,290,188 2,252,137 126,495 30,408 762,063 961,949 609,017 1,682,556 1,073,539 2,283,371 5,237,825 2,954,454 130% 66% 316% 75% 176% 129% Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2022 Population Projections, 2010-2020 Migration Scenario 30 Planning for the Future Policy and planning efforts relating to: • Housing affordability • Transit and transportation • Access to schools and health care • Utility infrastructure • Employment and workforce dynamics should consider demographic shifts as well as Austin’s demographic history. Policies put in place today will have long- standing effects on our city and communities. 31 ▪ Visit our website ▪ “Age of Change” and “Building the Future” story maps ▪ Data Request form ▪ Sign up here for occasional emails on our latest demographic analysis. austintexas.gov/demographics 32 Thank you! Lila Valencia, Ph.D. City Demographer lila.valencia@austintexas.gov