2. Regional Air Quality — original pdf

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Overview of Regional Air Quality Planning Efforts in the Austin MSA Clean Air Coalition Meeting December 13, 2023 CAPCOG – Regional Planning Commission in Statute; more often called a COG. • Emergency Communications 9-1-1 • Area Agency on Aging/Aging & Disability Resource Center • Homeland Security Planning & Training • Regional Law Enforcement Academy • Air Quality Planning • Solid Waste Planning • Economic Development Analysis & Technical Assistance • Transportation Planning 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 2 Ten – county service area; State of Texas planning region 12 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 3 CAPCOG’S AIR QUALITY PROGRAM 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 4 Local Government Voluntary Action Central Texas Clean Air Coalition (CAC) is a national leader in pro-active, voluntary efforts to improve air quality and stay in attainment of the standards Goal: Maintaining compliance with the NAAQS, improve air quality, provide guidance • Inspection and maintenance program, vehicle replacement programs, point source controls • CAPCOG’s air quality program conducts air quality monitoring, technical work, planning, and outreach Pollutants of Concerns are Ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 5 Supporting Members • Austin White Lime • Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization • Capital Metro • City of Lago Vista • City of Sunset Valley • City of Taylor • Clean Air Force of Central Texas • Huston-Tillotson University • Lower Colorado River Authority • Lonestar Clean Fuels Alliance • Public Citizen • Sierra Club – Lonestar Chapter • South-central Partnership for Energy Efficiency as a Resource • St. Edward's University • Texas Commission on Environmental Quality • Texas Department of Transportation • Texas Lehigh Cement Company • Texas Parks & Wildlife Department • US Environmental Protection Agency 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 6 CAPCOG’s AQ program • Provide technical assistance to CAC members – Monitor Pollution levels in the region – Technical reports (Annual Report, Annual Data • Preform Studies and Planning Activities – Emissions and Control Strategies (In partnership with Analysis) EPA and TCEQ) – Modeling Analysis (2015-2020 Ozone conceptual Moder, PM 2.5 Conceptual Model, Cost of Non- Attainment) 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 7 Outreach and Education The CAC wants to educate everyone on the dangers of air pollution! Air Central Texas (ACT) is an initiative to reduce exposure to air pollution in Central Texas through voluntary actions. Our partners include local governments, regional and state government agencies, non-profit groups, businesses, and institutions. Our mission • • • Motivate everyone to make decisions that are Air Aware. Provide the public with information about Central Texas Air Quality Support existing air quality programs Visit our website to learn more about air pollution in our region! @AirCentralTexas 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 8 NAAQS UPDATES 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 9 NAAQS Compliance 90% 91% 79% 78% 63% 63% 65% 53% 44% 46% 25% 25% 18% 16% 6% 6% CO 1-hr CO 8-hr NO2 annual NO2 1-hr* O3 8-hr PM2.5 annual PM2.5 daily PM10 daily SO2 1-hr* 2021 2022 3% 3% 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 10 2023 PM NAAQS Proposal – Key Details • On Jan. 5, 2023, EPA released its proposal for new Particulate Matter (PM) standards • Proposal • Annual PM2.5 - a revision as low as 8 µg/m3 and as high as 11 µg/m3 • 24-hr PM2.5 - asked for comment on a revision as low as 25 µg/m3 • OMB is reviewing the final rule now and the reviews typically take 60 – 90 days. • The review started 9/22/2023 • EPA asked for an expedited review Current Standard Proposed Standard 2022 Austin MSA Levels 12.0 µg/m3 9.3 µg/m3 Within the range of 9.0 to 10.0 µg/m3 35 µg/m3 No Change Proposed 22 µg/m3 150 µg/m3 No Change Proposed 63 µg/m3 Annual PM2.5 24-hr PM2.5 24-hr PM10 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 11 Annual PM2.5 Design Value Trend by Year ) 3 m / g µ ( 5 . 2 M P 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 22 22 21 24 24 22 22 23 22 22 22 19 20 10 10.2 10.2 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Annual PM2.5 Current NAAQS 24-Hour PM 2.5 Current 24hr NAAQS NAAQS Reconsideration Range 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 12 Counties Not Meeting the PM2.5 Proposal 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 13 PM2.5 NAAQS Reconsideration Timeline https://casac.epa.gov/ords/sab/f?p=113:19:14538376097957:::19:P19_ID:961 Early 2023 2023/24 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 14 PM Nonattainment Regulations • Once a final decision on the PM standard is made, EPA will have no more than 2 years to make designation determination • States must develop and submit attainment plans no later than 18 months after EPA finalizes nonattainment designations. • Plans must meet attainment as expeditiously as practicable but no later than the end of the 6th calendar year after nonattainment designations. • Conformity reviews are required. • The Clean Air Act specifies that cost, technical feasibility and the time needed to meet the standards are all factors that should be taken into account at this phase 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 15 O3 NAAQS Reconsideration • On Nov. 1st, 2021, EPA announced its decision to reconsider the previous administration’s decision to retain 2015 O3 NAAQS – On April 29, 2022, EPA released their draft policy assessment for reconsideration of the 2020 O3 NAAQS. In this document they concluded that the 2015 primary standard was adequate to protect public health – In November 2022, the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) reviewing the O3 NAAQS submitted its recommendation on the 2020 O3 NAAQS – stating that it “not recommending that the 2020 ISA, which is a final document, be reopened and revised.” • On Aug. 21st, 2023, EPA announced its decision to cancel the review of the previous administration’s decision to retain 2015 O3 NAAQS – This likely means that the 2015 O3 NAAQS will be in place until 2025 or later when the EPA is scheduled to complete its five-year review of the NAAQS. 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 16 8-hr Ozone Design Value and 4th High Trend 74 75 74 73 69 68 66 69 68 69 71 65 63 64 l ) b p p ( e u a V n g i s e D 3 O r u o H - 8 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 C3 4th High C38 4th High 2008 Standard 2015 Standard Design Value 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 17 2023 Ozone Design Values (DV) Monitor 2021 2022 2023* DV (3-year Average)* 2024 Exceedance Level 4th- highest value CAMS 3 (Austin N Hills) CAMS 38 (Austin Audubon) CAMS 614 (Dripping Springs) CAMS 690 (Lake Georgetown) CAMS 1604 (Lockhart) CAMS 1605 (St. Edward’s) CAMS 1612 (Bastrop) CAMS 1613 (Elgin) CAMS 1619 (East Austin) CAMS 1620 (Round Rock) CAMS 1629 (Taylor Murphy Park) CAMS 1630 (Lake Kyle Park) CAMS 1675 (San Marcos) 66 65 69 65 63 57 64 63 62 59 n/a n/a 63 73 66 81 74 69 69 67 69 74 77 n/a n/a 78 74 70 78 74 70 67 69 68 75 71 70 71 69 71 67 76 71 67 64 66 66 70 69 n/a n/a 70 66 77 54 65 74 77 77 76 64 65 n/a n/a 66 12/13/2023 * Value is not yet valid Capital Area Council of Governments 18 Noncompliance vs Nonattainment • An area can be out of compliance with the NAAQS but not designated nonattainment • Nonattainment is a formal designation made by the EPA • The EPA will select what counties met the NAAQS • Typically, if applicable, an entire MSA will be selected as the nonattainment area however that is not guaranteed. • Ex. In San Antonio, only Bexar County is designated nonattainment • It is within EPA’s powers to make designations whenever it choses, however, EPA is required to make designations when a NAAQS is revised • Ex. In 2020 the EPA retain all NAAQS and did not apply any new designations even through there were areas out of compliance. • The previous administration wanted to raise some of the standards but doing so would require EPA to make new designations while retaining the standards does not. 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 19 Ozone Nonattainment Regulations • CAA requires nonattainment areas to implement emissions reductions to meet the NAAQS as quick as possible. • CAPCOG's 2016 Cost of Nonattainment Study which found that nonattainment would cost the region $24.4 ‐ $39.0 billion over the next 30 years • This does not include new projects that we unknowns in 2016 • Tesla – Giga Texas, Samsung Taylor Fab 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 20 Recent Example – San Antonio 80 81 80 78 75 75 73 74 72 73 72 75 76 73 • San Antonio has exceeded the standard since 2012. • San Antonio was not designated as a nonattainment area until July 2018. • This was due to: • Texas with other states sued the EPA over the 2015 O3 standard; and • EPA chose not to designate the region until it was required to make designations in 2015 when the standard was lowered • If the standard is retained like it was in 2020, the EPA is not required to make designations l ) b p p ( e u a V n g i s e D 3 O r u o H - 8 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 21 C23 4th High C58 4th High C59 4th High2 Recent Example – El Paso 76 75 75 73 74 73 72 72 72 72 71 71 71 71 • El Paso has exceeded the standard since 2015 and the area continues to be designated attainment/unclassifiable. • EPA designated El Paso attainment/unclassifiable in 2018 • Sunland Park, New Mexico and other groups sued EPA that same year asking for a nonattainment designation • • In 2021, EPA announce it would reverse this decision and classify the area nonattainment In summer 2023, this decision was reversed by the Court of Appeals l ) b p p ( e u a V n g i s e D 3 O r u o H - 8 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 68 67 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 22 2008 Standard 2015 Standard Design Value MONITORING UPDATES 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 23 O3 and PM2.5 2023 Monitoring Locations 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 24 Upcoming PM2.5 Monitoring Locations 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 25 2023 AQI Days by Month Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhealthy 1 22 1 19 22 1 6 24 12 16 1 19 11 13 17 1 8 7 22 22 1 9 17 4 7 12 11 8 10 9 7 January February March April May June July August September October November December 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments *Thru Dec. 7, 2023 26 2023 Moderate or Worse AQI Days by Monitor* Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhealthy 1 73 96 95 10 45 4 36 7 50 9 39 3 30 9 34 5 38 1 7 41 7 37 43 43 Austin North Hills Dr. CAMS 3 Austin Webberville Rd. CAMS 171 PM2.5 12/13/2023 Austin N I35 CAMS 1068 Austin North Hills Dr. CAMS 3 Audubon Society CAMS 38 Dripping Springs CAMS 614 Lake Georgetown CAMS 690 Lockhart CAMS 1604 Bastrop CAMS 1612 Elgin CAMS 1613 East Austin CAMS 1619 Round Rock Brushy Creek West CAMS 1620 Taylor CAMS 1629 Kyle CAMS 1630 San Marcos CAMS 1675 Ozone Capital Area Council of Governments *Thru Nov. 05, 2023 3 35 27 2022 vs 2023 Ozone Season - AQI 2022 Ozone Season, AQI 2023 Ozone Season, AQI Good Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhealthy Good Moderate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhealthy Moderate 1 1 22 19 11 6 11 14 1 3 20 2 8 21 3 17 11 7 10 14 11 10 9 1 22 1 19 22 1 19 11 13 17 1 9 17 4 1 8 22 7 12 11 7 6 8 10 9 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 28 2022 vs 2023 Ozone Season - Regulatory 4th High O3 Trend l ) b p p ( e u a V n g i s e D 3 O r u o H - 8 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 C3 4th High C38 4th High 2008 Standard 2015 Standard 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 29 REGIONAL PLANNING ACTIVITIES 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 30 2022 CAC Member Measures Measures Implemented by CAC Members Total 25 Organizations Submitted Reports • • • • • • • • • • Bastrop County CAPCOG City of Austin City of Bastrop City of Bee Cave City of Buda City of Cedar Park City of Elgin City of Kyle City of Lakeway City of Pflugerville City of Round Rock City of San Marcos City of Taylor Clean Air Force • • • • • • Hays County • Movability • Lone Star Clean Fuels Alliance Lower Colorado River • Authority • St. Edwards University • TCEQ • TxDOT • Texas Lehigh Cement Co. • Travis County • Williamson County 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 31 O3 Emission Reduction Measures Tier 1 (24) Tier 2 (21) • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Bastrop County City of Austin City of Bastrop City of Bee Cave City of Buda City of Cedar Park City of Elgin City of Kyle City of Lakeway City of Pflugerville City of Round Rock City of San Marcos City of Taylor CLEAN Air Force • • • • CAPCOG Hays County LCRA Lone Star Clean Fuels Alliance • Movability • St. Edwards University • TCEQ • TxDOT • Travis County • Williamson County • • • • • • • • • • • • Bastrop County City of Austin City of Bastrop City of Bee Cave City of Buda City of Cedar Park City of Elgin City of Lakeway City of Pflugerville City of Round Rock City of San Marcos City of Taylor • • • • CLEAN Air Force CAPCOG Hays County Lone Star Clean Fuels Alliance • Movability • • St. Edwards University Texas Lehigh Cement Co. • Travis County • Williamson County 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 32 PM2.5 Emission Reductions Implement within Own Organization’s Operations (19) Encourage or Require 3rd Party Organization’s to Implement (14) Educate and Encourage the Public at Large to Implement (13) • • • • City of Taylor CLEAN Air Force LCRA Lone Star Clean Fuels Alliance • Movability • St. Edwards University • Travis County • Williamson County • • • • • • • • • • • Bastrop County CAPCOG City of Austin City of Bastrop City of Bee Cave City of Buda City of Cedar Park City of Elgin City of Kyle City of Pflugerville City of San Marcos Bastrop County City of Austin City of Bee Cave City of Buda City of Cedar Park City of Elgin City of Kyle City of San Marcos City of Taylor CLEAN Air Force • • • • • • • • • • • Movability • St. Edwards University • Travis County • Williamson County Bastrop County City of Austin City of Bee Cave City of San Marcos City of Taylor CAPCOG CLEAN Air Force Lone Star Clean Fuels Alliance • • • • • • • • • Movability • St. Edwards University • TCEQ • Travis County • Williamson County 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 33 2022 Complaints Tracking County Bastrop Caldwell Hays Travis Williamson Total 189 Total Complaints 2 3 0 0 6 2 1 6 0 3 4 78 12 11 3 34 1 4 0 4 13 89 56 12 19 4 3 4 1 3 Burning Complaints Odor Complaints Dust Complaints Smoke Complaints Other Complaints Complaints/ 10,000 Residents 1.41 2.30 0.45 0.81 0.64 0.78 [1] Other Complaints include those categorized by TCEQ as Wastewater, Municipal (non-industrial), Construstruction, and undefined. 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 34 Emissions Inspection Failure Rate Trend 2006-2022 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 6 0 0 2 7 0 0 2 8 0 0 2 9 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 2 1 0 2 3 1 0 2 4 1 0 2 5 1 0 2 6 1 0 2 7 1 0 2 8 1 0 2 9 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 35 Air Quality Forecasting Accuracy and Success OAD Forecast Accuracy and Success, 2020-2022 Accuracy and Success of AQI Forecasts for 2022 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 14 19 18 19 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 62 48 72 72 61 40 44 40 51 39 138 138 OAD Days Days when MDA8 O3 >70 ppb Forecast Correct Forecast Incorrect Forecast Correct Forecast Incorrect Ozone Forecast, Moderate or Worse Actual Ozone Levels, Moderate or Worse PM2.5 Forecast, Moderate or Worse PM2.5 Actual Levels, Moderate or Worse Overall AQI Forecast, Moderate or Worse Actual AQI, Moderate or Worse 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 36 Next Steps • In 2024, CAPCOG will complete a study of potential emission reduction measures that the region can implement. • CAPCOG will discuss with the CAC potential updates to CAPCOG’s 2019-2016 Scope of Work. • Will ask CAC members to review voluntary actions they can • The CAC-Outreach & Education committee will help us message AQ implement. to the public. 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 37 Thank You Capital Area Council of Governments www.capcog.org Anton Cox Air Quality Program Manager 512-916-6036 acox@capcog.org 12/13/2023 Capital Area Council of Governments 38