4. Population Change and Demographic Trends Since 2010 Census — original pdf
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Population Change and Demographic Trends Since 2010 Census Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission June 16, 2021 Content 2010 City Council Districts Population Growth Demographic Shifts 2020 Census Redistricting 2010 Redistricting ICRC Final Plan November 2013 4 Demographic Characteristics by District, 2010 5 Demographic Characteristics by District, 2010 6 Demographic Characteristics by District, 2010 7 Demographic Characteristics by District, 2010 8 Demographic Characteristics by District, 2010 9 Population Growth Since 10-1 Austin Population Growth, 1870 to 2020 The ideal city council district size would be approximately 99,584. 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 .995 million 465,622 345,890 251,808 186,545 132,459 87,930 4,428 11,013 14,575 22,258 29,860 34,876 53,120 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses 1870 – 2010; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. 995,484 790,390 656,562 11 Austin is the 11th largest city in the country and growing. Numeric Change Among 15 Largest U.S. Cities, 2019-2020 Phoenix, AZ San Antonio, TX Fort Worth, TX Austin, TX Charlotte, NC Jacksonville, FL Columbus, OH San Diego, CA Houston, TX Dallas, TX Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA San Jose, CA Chicago, IL New York, NY .995 million -100000 -80000 -60000 -40000 -20000 0 20000 40000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. 12 Austin’s rate of growth seeing an uptick in last years of the decade. 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.83% 3.10% 2.00% 1.61% 1.00% 0.73% 0.00% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 U.S. Texas Austin Metro Austin 1.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. 3.02% 1.71% 1.29% 0.35% 13 Austin was the fastest growing metro in the country every year this decade. Numeric Change, 2010-2020 Percent Change, 2010-2020 Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX Raleigh-Cary, NC Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. 579,014 289,886 504,963 448,224 1,327,596 1,234,062 867,022 440,316 315,032 364,694 33.74% 25.64% 23.66% 20.92% 20.85% 20.84% 20.68% 19.62% 19.14% 18.69% 14 Central Texas cities among the fastest growing cities in the country. Rank Place 2019 Estimate 2020 Estimate Numeric Change Percent Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 44 Leander, TX Queen Creek, AZ Herriman, UT Apex, NC Georgetown, TX Buckeye, AZ Farmers Branch, TX Kyle, TX Little Elm, TX Medford, MA New Braunfels, TX Round Rock, TX 62,715 54,655 51,330 59,485 79,745 79,616 48,218 48,481 53,310 57,367 90,425 70,519 60,097 55,756 64,388 85,538 85,224 51,373 51,558 56,625 60,847 95,534 133,579 137,575 7,804 5,442 4,426 4,903 5,793 5,608 3,155 3,077 3,315 3,480 5,109 3,996 12.44% 9.96% 8.62% 8.24% 7.26% 7.04% 6.54% 6.35% 6.22% 6.07% 5.65% 2.99% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2020. 15 Austin’s share of regional growth flattens. 72% 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Austin Metro Population Change City of Austin Share of Change 25% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25% 16 Drivers of Growth ▪ Migration from other states and other parts of Texas drove nearly 3/4 of the growth in the Austin metro area between 2019 and 2020. ▪ Increased share due to increase in newcomers paired with decrease in international migrants and natural increase. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. Domestic Migration 73% Natural Increase 21% Int'l Migration 6% 17 Austin metro area experiences small increase in births but also deaths. 25,235 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 5,000 0 10,000 8,330 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 14,111 Natural Increase Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. Births Deaths 26,744 12,633 18 Domestic migration driving growth in all parts of the metro. Components of Population Change, Central Texas Counties, 2019-2020 Population Change, 2019 to 2020 2,864 400 10,965 26,936 26,032 Natural Increase Domestic Migration International Migration 10.2% 45.0% 12.5% 31.9% 14.2% -0.7% 5.8% 2.4% 12.7% 2.7% 91.1% 48.8% 85.7% 55.4% 83.6% Bastrop County Caldwell County Hays County Travis County Williamson County Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2020. 19 Most moves happen locally and within the state. Moved to Austin 1 Year Ago, 2019 Moved: within Travis County 59.2% Did not Move 77.9% Moved 22.1% Moved: different county in TX 20.3% Moved: different state 14.4% Moved: abroad 6.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 1-Year Estimates 20 Travis County losing population to surrounding counties but gaining from other parts of Texas, the country, and the world. Travis County In-Flows Net Migration Williamson County 10,147 Harris County Asia Hays County Bexar County Dallas County Central America Tarrant County Brazos County Bastrop County Bell County Caldwell County Burnet County Los Angeles County, CA 5,746 4,803 4,240 3,758 3,005 2,062 2,053 1,770 607 1,423 966 162 99 -6795 1,850 -1,862 541 1,071 -1,112 701 868 -897 -717 -380 -127 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey County to County Migration Flows, 2014-2018; for map of county-to-county flows, https://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/map.html 21 Where are Austinites from? ▪ Share of Austin residents Place of Birth of Austin Residents, 2019 Foreign Born: Northern America 0.3% Foreign Born: Oceania 0.1% born in Texas has dropped from 55% to 49% in last decade. ▪ Share of Austin residents from other countries has remained stable at 18%. ▪ Biggest increase seen among Austin residents from other U.S. states, growing from 26% to 31% in last decade. Foreign Born: Europe 1.4% Foreign Born: Latin America 10.0% Foreign Born: Africa 0.9% U.S. Born: Islands and Abroad 1.7% Foreign Born: Asia 6.9% U.S. Born: West 7.3% U.S. Born: South 8.6% U.S. Born: Midwest 8.1% U.S. Born: Northeast 5.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 1-Year Estimates Born in TX 49.2% 22 Numeric Population Change, 2010 to 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates 23 Percent Change, 2010 to 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates 24 Percent Black, 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates 25 Percent Hispanic, 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates 26 Percent Asian, 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates 27 Percent Non-Hispanic White, 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019 5-Year Estimates 28 Uniquely Diverse Austin Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2019 0.13% 2.82% 0.29% 8.13% 7.39% 32.48% Hispanic or Latino White, NH Black or African American, NH American Indian and Alaska Native, NH Asian and Pacific Islander, NH Some other race, NH Two or more races, NH 48.78% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 2019. Note: NH = Non-Hispanic Austin Racial-Ethnic Composition Change, 2010 to 2019 2010 2019 Percent of Total Numeric Change Percent Change Percent of Total Change Hispanic or Latino 277,707 318,016 32.48% White, NH 385,271 477,688 48.78% Black or African American, NH American Indian and Alaska Native, NH 1,967 2,796 60,760 72,344 7.39% Asian and Pacific Islander, NH 46,560 79,584 Some other race, NH 1,448 1,260 0.29% 8.13% 0.13% 2.82% 40,309 92,417 11,584 829 33,024 -188 14.51% 23.99% 19.07% 42.15% 70.93% -12.98% 21.34% 48.93% 6.13% 0.44% 17.48% -0.10% 7.36% Two or more races, NH 13,677 27,575 13,898 101.62% Total 790,390 979,263 100.00% 188,873 23.90% 100.00% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2010; American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 2019. Note: red text denotes decrease since 2010 31 2020 Census 2020 Census: How did we do? U.S. Texas Travis Austin Dallas Dallas Bexar Harris Houston El Paso El Paso Tarrant San Antonio For t Wor th 2020 67.0% 62.8% 67.3% 67.3% 63.9% 59.7% 67.3% 65.6% 62.9% 58.9% 66.8% 68.2% 68.9% 64.5% 2010 66.5% 64.4% 66.2% 66.7% 64.6% 61.9% 66.8% 67.2% 65.1% 63.5% 70.8% 72.6% 66.8% 65.8% Austin-Travis County only large Texas city-county pair to beat their 2010 self-response rates. 33 2020 Census: Looking Ahead ▪ Apportionment file released in April. ▪ Texas gained 2 congressional seats, 1 less than projected. ▪ 38 Congressional seats ▪ 40 Electoral College votes 34 2020 Census: Looking Ahead ▪ Redistricting file to be released mid-August to late September. ▪ Aug 16 release on Census Bureau FTP site ▪ Sep 30 release on data.census.gov ▪ Data file to include block-level total population, voting age, race/ethnicity, housing occupancy status, and group quarters by type 35 2020 Census: Looking Ahead ▪ Data quality metrics ▪ Post-Enumeration survey ▪ Evaluate count, especially of historically undercounted communities ▪ Explore count of college age populations living off-campus ▪ Demographic & Housing Characteristics file ▪ Household type, relation to householder, age detail, etc. ▪ Released next year 36 Resources & Other Considerations Data Resources ▪ 2020 Census Redistricting Geography Files ▪ 2020 Census Data Products Crosswalk ▪ data.census.gov (September 30) ▪ Texas Legislative Council Redistricting 38 Data Privacy & Legal Battles ▪ Census Bureau must ensure confidentiality of data per Title 13 ▪ Differential Privacy attempts to protect privacy but could impact of the U.S. Code data accuracy ▪ Alabama v. U.S. Department of Commerce ▪ More info on differential privacy 39 Q & A 40 Thank you! Lila Valencia, Ph.D. City Demographer lila.valencia@austintexas.gov