20200205-001b: Climate Vulnerability in Austin Presentation — original pdf

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Climate Vulnerability in Austin: A multi-risk assessment A project of the Austin Area Sustainability Indicators & Texas Metropolitan Observatory of Planet Texas 2050 City of Austin Environmental Commission February 5, 2020 Prepared by: R. Patrick Bixler, PhD1 and Euijin Yang2 1. LBJ School of Public Affairs 2. Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering 2 A2SI Mission: To measure quality of life and sustainability trends and serve as the foundation for a systems approach to address the challenges of our region. www.austinindicators.org 3 The Texas Metro Observatory (TMO) is a communication and data platform dedicated to sharing information and ideas about Texas’ communities, understanding common problems, and developing solutions across the state’s metropolitan areas. https://tmo.utexas.edu/ TMO provides access to data (economic, environmental, health, demographic, governmental, etc.) for all metros in the state and produces unique data visualizations, infographics, and analysis tools that will provide a deeper understanding of issues within and among metro areas1. Climate Vulnerability in Austin Climate projections for Austin2 • Increases in annual and seasonal average temperatures • More frequent high temperature extremes • More frequent extreme precipitation • More frequent drought conditions in summer due to hotter weather Climate Vulnerability in Austin Austin can expect more extreme weather in the future Climate Vulnerability in Austin Climate Vulnerability in Austin Community Resilience Climate Vulnerability in Austin Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure (-) Community Resilience Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Social Vulnerability (-) (-) Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity (-) (-) (+) Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Assess the spatial sensitivity to hazards and difference across communities in their overall capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from hazards. We do this by adapting a well-vetted and oft-used tool – The Social Vulnerability Index (or SoVI®). Climate Vulnerability in Austin Assessing the spatial exposure of independent hazards. These include: a. Flooding (specifically, riverine/creek flooding) b. Wildfire c. Extreme heat Assess the spatial sensitivity to hazards and difference across communities in their overall capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from hazards. We do this by adapting a well-vetted and oft-used tool – The Social Vulnerability Index (or SoVI®). Climate Vulnerability in Austin Conduct single risk assessments by analyzing the interaction between sensitivity (SoVI®) and exposure for each independent hazard Assessing the spatial exposure of independent hazards. These include: a. Flooding (specifically, riverine/creek flooding) b. Wildfire c. Extreme heat Assess the spatial sensitivity to hazards and difference across communities in their overall capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from hazards. We do this by adapting a well-vetted and oft-used tool – The Social Vulnerability Index (or SoVI®). Climate Vulnerability in Austin Conduct single risk assessments by analyzing the interaction between sensitivity (SoVI®) and exposure for each independent hazard Assessing the spatial exposure of independent hazards. These include: a. Flooding (specifically, riverine/creek flooding) b. Wildfire c. Extreme heat Assess the spatial sensitivity to hazards and difference across communities in their overall capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from hazards. We do this by adapting a well-vetted and oft-used tool – The Social Vulnerability Index (or SoVI®). Develop a composite multi- climate risk index. Social Vulnerability in Austin • Utilized the Cutter et al. Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI®)4 methodology, which is well established and oft used • Related, but includes more parameters than Center for Disease Control (CDC) SVI • Statistically specified it for for Austin (based on data) resulting in 18 variables across six principal components. Social Vulnerability in Austin Austin Wildfire Hazard Exposure Austin Wildfire Risk (exposure + social vulnerability Austin Flood Hazard Exposure Austin Flood Risk (exposure + social vulnerability) Austin Heat Hazard Exposure Austin Heat Risk (exposure + social vulnerability) Austin Multi-hazard Exposure Austin Multi-hazard Risk (Climate Vulnerability) Austin Multi-hazard Risk (Climate Vulnerability) Austin Multi-hazard Risk (Climate Vulnerability) Austin Multi-hazard Risk (Climate Vulnerability) Fire, Flood, Heat Flood, Fire, Heat Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity (-) (-) (+) Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Decrease exposure Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity (-) (-) (+) Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Increase Adaptive Capacity (-) (-) (+) Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Increase Adaptive Capacity (-) (-) (+) (+) (+) Household preparedness Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Climate Vulnerability in Austin Exposure Wildfire hazard exposure (+) (+) Multi-hazard exposure Flood hazard exposure Heat hazard exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Social Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity Increase Adaptive Capacity Social Capital (networks, and trust) (+) (-) (-) (+) (+) (+) Household preparedness Community Resilience Neighborhood Household Questions & Feedback RGK Center for Philanthropy and Community Service R. Patrick Bixler, PhD LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin Email: rpbixler@utexas.edu Website: AustinIndicators.org Works Cited 1. Bixler, R. Patrick, Katherine Lieberknecht, Fernanda Leite, Juliana Felkner, Michael Oden, Steven M. Richter, Samer Atshan, Alvaro Zilveti, and Rachel Thomas. 2019. “An Observatory Framework for Metropolitan Change: Understanding Urban Social– Ecological–Technical Systems in Texas and Beyond.” Sustainability 11 (13): 3611. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133611. 2. Cutter, Susan L., Bryan J. Boruff, and W. Lynn Shirley. 2003. “Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards*.” Social Science Quarterly 84 (2): 242–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6237.8402002. 3. Hayhoe, Katharine. 2014. “Climate Change Projections for the City of Austin.” ATMOS Research & Consulting. Appendix The Flood Vulnerability Score is calculated as follows: 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑓𝑓𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆 𝑏𝑏𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅 𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 = � 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 𝐹𝐹𝑇𝑇𝑃𝑃𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐺𝐺𝑃𝑃𝐺𝐺𝑤𝑤𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝑊𝑊𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅𝑔𝑔𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆 𝑊𝑊𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅𝑔𝑔𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆 = 𝐴𝐴𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑊𝑊 𝐹𝐹𝑓𝑓 𝑓𝑓𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝐹𝐹𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅𝑓𝑓 𝑤𝑤𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅𝑓𝑓 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑆𝑆 𝑏𝑏𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅 𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑇𝑇𝐹𝐹𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝐹𝐹 𝐴𝐴𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑊𝑊 𝐹𝐹𝑓𝑓 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑆𝑆 𝑏𝑏𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅 𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 Appendix 𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑓𝑓𝑅𝑅𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = 𝑓𝑓 𝑃𝑃𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑏𝑏𝑊𝑊𝑏𝑏𝑅𝑅𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝑃𝑃 𝐹𝐹𝑓𝑓 𝑤𝑤𝑅𝑅𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑓𝑓𝑅𝑅𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒𝑆𝑆𝑓𝑓𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅, 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑅𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑅𝑓𝑓𝑆𝑆 𝑅𝑅𝑓𝑓𝑊𝑊𝑆𝑆𝑓𝑓𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝑃𝑃 + 𝑆𝑆𝑔𝑔𝐹𝐹𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅𝑓𝑓𝑔𝑔 𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑓𝑓𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 Appendix 𝐻𝐻𝑆𝑆𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝑊𝑊𝑔𝑔𝐹𝐹𝑓𝑓𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑊𝑊𝑏𝑏𝑅𝑅𝐹𝐹𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝑃𝑃 𝑓𝑓𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆 𝑏𝑏𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅 𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 = 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑔𝑔𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑒𝑒𝑅𝑅𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑅𝑅𝑓𝑓𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 − 0.1 ∗ 𝑇𝑇𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑇𝑇𝑊𝑊𝑓𝑓𝐹𝐹𝑔𝑔𝑃𝑃 Appendix The Composite Climate Vulnerability Index score was calculated as follows. 𝑇𝑇𝑊𝑊𝐼𝐼𝐶𝐶𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝐺𝐺𝐵𝐵𝐶𝐶𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑃𝑃 = 𝑤𝑤𝑓𝑓𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓 ∗ 𝑇𝑇𝑊𝑊𝐼𝐼𝐹𝐹𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓 + 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑤𝐺𝐺𝑃𝑃 ∗ 𝑇𝑇𝑊𝑊𝐼𝐼𝑊𝑊𝑤𝑤𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑤𝐺𝐺𝑃𝑃 + 𝑤𝑤𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑃𝑃𝑢𝑢𝑤𝑤 ∗ 𝑇𝑇𝑊𝑊𝐼𝐼𝑈𝑈𝐺𝐺𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑤𝑤𝑈𝑈𝑃𝑃𝑢𝑢𝑤𝑤 , The factors for each shock/stressor, which were all assumed to be 1, representing the equal importance across the three. indicate weight 𝑤𝑤𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑢𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑃𝑃𝑢𝑢𝑤𝑤 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑤𝐺𝐺𝑃𝑃 𝑤𝑤𝑓𝑓𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓 , and