Item 3: Presentation by Task Force Chair Michael Osborne — original pdf
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1 GENERATION TASK FORCE May 28th 2014 Presented by Michael J Osborne 2 GENERATION TASK FORCE 3 GENERATION TASK FORCE 4 ENERGY UNIFICATION 4 5 THE BIG PICTURE What is the future for gas prices? Will the price of Large Scale Solar continue to decrease? When and how will carbon be priced in the market? When will Distributed Solar and Smart Grid demand reduction erode load growth? Water 5 6 AE GAS PRICE FORECAST 7 ACTUAL HENRY HUB PRICES 8 EIA NATURAL GAS 8 9 EIA NATURAL GAS 9 10 SOLAR IS THE NEW WIND 11 SOLAR IS THE NEW WIND According to the latest data, solar power capacity installed around the world this year will beat wind power for the first time ever. "Photovoltaic plants will add about 36.7 GW globally in 2013 and wind farms 35.5 GW 12 SOLAR POWER PLANT COSTS 12 13 WILL SOLAR PRICES DECLINE? Solar tax credit expires in 2016 13 14 SOLAR PRICES VS GAS 14 15 SOLAR VS GAS VS WIND 15 16 PRICING CARBON 16 17 LARGEST MACHINE ON EARTH 18 LARGEST RE MACHINE ON EARTH 19 TO POWER AUSTIN Solar provides .3 TWhs/section Austin Energy makes 14 TWhs/year Total area to power Austin..45 sections Total area of Austin...300 sections Usable rooftop area ...10 sections Existing Power Plants...35 sections 19 20 REPURPOSING FAYETTE 10 square miles 2400 acre lake One gigawatt of solar 500 MWs at reduced density Replace sequestered coal fuel with renewable fuel Build New advanced plant Establish non AE task force 20 21 TOMORROW WILL CHANGE US