Item 3_Update on refined Water Management Strategy Assessment and Vulnerability Evaluation (WAVE) results and 50-year portfolios

Austin Integrated Water Resource Planning Community Task Force – July 15, 2024

Item 3_Update on refined Water Management Strategy Assessment and Vulnerability Evaluation (WAVE) results and 50-year portfolios — original pdf

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Water Forward Task Force Meeting Preliminary WAVE Results July 15, 2024 Portfolio evaluation process  Develop 2080 optimal portfolios.  Build out identified 2080 portfolios for 2030-2070.  Use multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) analysis to select the recommended 2030- 2080 portfolio for Water Forward.  Develop an adaptive management plan for the recommended portfolio. 2 Today - Step 1: 2080 Optimized Portfolios Step 2: Build 2030-2070 pathways Portfolio 1 Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 2 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 WMS 1 WMS 1 WMS 1 WMS 1 WMS 1 WMS 2 WMS 2 WMS 2 WMS 2 WMS 2 WMS 3 WMS 3 WMS 3 WMS 3 WMS 3 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 6 WMS 6 WMS 6 WMS 6 WMS 6 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 4 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 5 WMS 6 WMS 6 WMS 6 WMS 6 WMS 6 2080 WMS 1 WMS 2 WMS 3 2080 WMS 4 WMS 5 WMS 6 2080 WMS 7 WMS 8 WMS 9 Portfolio 3 Portfolio 3 Step 3: Select Water Forward portfolio using MCDM analysis and develop adaptive management plan WMS 10 WMS 11 WMS 12 WMS 13 50-year candidate portfolios will be evaluated using MCDM analysis incorporating criteria informed by Task Force input. Objectives Avoid severe water shortages during drought and a variety of climate change scenarios Focus on water conservation and water use efficiency Include diverse water management strategies that make use of all water sources. Minimize impacts and maximize benefits of plan outcomes for marginalized communities Develop strategies that continue to protect the natural environment, including source and downstream water quality Performance Measures • WAM/WAVE modeling results • • Potable GPCD Portfolio diversity score Cost (lifecycle, capital, O&M) Equity & Affordability Tool • • • Net return flows • Operational energy use • Water quality impacts • • Develop strategies that are technically, socially, and economically feasible and can be implemented and operated with a manageable level of risk Implementation and operational risk score System resiliency benefits Develop strategies that make use of locally available and AW-controlled water resources resources • Volume of local and AW-controlled water Candidate portfolios are built from samples of nearly 2 million combinations of WMSs. WMS ASR BGD IPRLBL OCR OCR+ Decker AddLCRA SWD DPR IBT GW DR1 DR2 DR3 DR4 DR5 DR6 DR7 Description Aquifer Storage and Recovery Brackish Groundwater Desalination Indirect Potable Reuse through Lady Bird Lake with local Inflows New Off Channel Reservoir, Colorado River water New Off Channel Reservoir, Colorado River and reclaimed water Off-channel reservoir supplied by Colorado River water (Decker Lake) Additional Supply from LCRA, regional Colorado River partnerships, and/or water rights optimization Seawater Desalination Direct Potable Reuse from Wastewater Treatment Plant Interbasin Transfer (surface water) Importation of conventional groundwater CR - Current Ordinance, DCR - Phase 1, OR - Current Ordinance CR - Larger System, DCR - Phase 1, OR - Smaller Building Threshold CR - Larger System, DCR - Phase 1, OR - Adjusting Benchmarks CR - Larger Connection Area, DCR - Phase 1, OR - Smaller Building Threshold CR - Larger Connection Area, DCR - Phase 1, OR - Adjusting Benchmarks CR - Larger System, Larger Connection Area, DCR - Phase 1, OR - Smaller Building Threshold, Adjusting Benchmarks CR - Larger System, Larger Connection Area, DCR - Phase 1, 2, OR - Smaller Building Threshold, Adjusting Benchmarks The WAVE analysis developed cost and performance scores for nearly 2M 2080 candidate portfolio options.  Candidate portfolios were evaluated on cost, reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability.  In general, you can think of the metrics as follows: • Reliability = frequency of shortage shortage shortage • Resiliency = duration of • Vulnerability = magnitude of t s o C d e a c S l 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% WAVE Analysis Results Candidate portfolio results 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Performance Score Ten 2080 portfolios have been identified for further development and analysis through MCDM analysis.  The identified portfolios span a range of cost and performances.  Portfolio pathways and yields will be developed for 2030- 2070 decades in the next step and prior to MCDM analysis. 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% t s o C d e a c S l Min 0% 75% WAVE Analysis Results Max Candidate portfolio results Optimal results for rel. res., and vul. Identified portfolios 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Performance Score Identified 2080 portfolios for MCDM analysis All volumes in max annual yield, acre-feet per year Utility- Side Water Loss Control 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 Portfolio No. Min 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Max Customer- Side Water Use Mgmt Native & Efficient Landscaping Centralized Reclaimed Dect. Reclai med Onsite Reuse ASR Brackish GW Desal IPR New OCR New OCR with Reuse Decker Lake OCR New LCRA Supply Seawater Desal. DPR Interbasin Transfer Conventi onal GW 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 0 0 0 22,400 0 22,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 25,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 10,000 22,400 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 22,400 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 22,400 17,500 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 0 10,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 0 25,000 9,600 9,600 0 18,300 0 18,300 9,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,000 0 22,400 0 22,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20,000 20,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 0 0 18,300 40,000 22,400 10,000 20,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 25,000 60,000 22,400 20,000 20,000 Identified 2080 portfolios for MCDM analysis All volumes in max annual yield, acre-feet per year Utility- Side Water Loss Control 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 Portfolio No. Min 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Max New OCR with Reuse Decker Lake OCR New LCRA Supply 0 0 0 0 9,600 9,600 Customer- Side Water Use Mgmt Native & Efficient Landscaping Centralized Reclaimed Dect. Reclai med Onsite Reuse ASR Brackish GW Desal IPR New OCR Seawater Desal. DPR Interbasin Transfer Conventi onal GW 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 0 0 0 0 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 0 22,400 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 0 0 25,000 0 22,400 All portfolios contain the most robust scenario option for demand management strategies, including expansion of reclaimed, onsite, and landscape ordinances. 40,000 22,400 10,000 22,400 0 18,300 0 18,300 40,000 22,400 17,500 9,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 0 10,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 0 25,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,000 0 22,400 0 22,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20,000 20,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 0 0 18,300 40,000 22,400 10,000 20,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 25,000 60,000 22,400 20,000 20,000 Identified 2080 portfolios for MCDM analysis All volumes in max annual yield, acre-feet per year Utility- Side Water Loss Control 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 11,500 Portfolio No. Min 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Max Customer- Side Water Use Mgmt Native & Efficient Landscaping Centralized Reclaimed Dect. Reclai med Onsite Reuse ASR Brackish GW Desal IPR New OCR New OCR with Reuse Decker Lake OCR New LCRA Supply Seawater Desal. DPR Interbasin Transfer Conventi onal GW 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 8,800 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 6,100 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 0 0 0 22,400 0 22,400 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26,900 1,300 10,600 6,000 25,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 10,000 22,400 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 22,400 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 22,400 17,500 26,900 1,300 10,600 44,500 40,000 0 10,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 0 25,000 0 0 0 0 0 New LCRA supply does 0 not appear in any 0 proposed portfolios for 0 2080. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20,000 20,000 0 0 0 5,000 0 0 0 22,400 0 22,400 9,600 9,600 0 18,300 0 18,300 9,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 0 0 18,300 40,000 22,400 10,000 20,000 26,900 1,300 10,600 83,000 40,000 22,400 25,000 60,000 22,400 20,000 20,000 2080 portfolios identified for MCDM analysis 100% Onsite Reuse Decentralized Reclaimed Centralized Reclaimed 95% Native and Efficient Landscaping Customer-Side Water Use Mgmt Utility-Side Water Loss Control 90% Conventional Groundwater e r o c S e c n a m r o f r e P . g v A 85% 80% 75% Interbasin Transfer Direct Potable Reuse Seawater Desalination Additional LCRA Supply Decker OCR New OCR with Reuse New Off-Channel Reservoir (OCR) Indirect Potable Reuse (IPR) Brackish Groundwater Desalination Aquifer Storage and Recovery Avg. Performance Score ) Y F A ( d e Y i l l a u n n A x a M 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 10 Next steps  RAND will develop portfolio WMS yields for 2030-2070 planning  Develop data for MCDM analysis.  Begin the scoring process for identified portfolios.  Present refined portfolio scoring at the August 13th Task Force  Targeting fall 2024 for development of adaptive management plan. horizons. meeting. 11 Questions?