3 - Presentation of Water Forward 2024 water management strategies characterization — original pdf

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Water Forward 2024 water management strategies April 15, 2024 Water Forward 2024: Planning for Uncertainty Range of demands Possible climate futures Droughts Worse than the Drought of Record Regional supply trends Uncertainty in future water availability Water Forward 2024 Decision points A C D B E 2120  Develop a range of future conditions  Find common near-term strategies that work for a broad range of futures  Develop adaptive plan with key decision points  Re-evaluate at key decision points Scenario Planning Methodology Goal Define the needs Evaluate potential solutions Identify potential solutions Select the best solution & implementation strategy Ongoing community engagement and equity work Tasks Develop range of future scenarios WF18 implementation evaluation and update Preliminary needs assessment Identify, screen, and characterize additional WMS Use optimization model to identify top-performing WMSs over all scenarios Construct 50-yr portfolios for further evaluation 50-Year portfolio trade-off analysis Conduct vulnerability assessment to identify system stressors Preferred 50-yr portfolio & equity and affordability analysis Adaptive Management Plan (AMP) Outcome Updated WF18 strategies and range of baseline needs WMSs variables and rules for testing Evaluated 50-year portfolios and identified system stressors Water Forward 2024 Plan Timeline 2022 Fall 2024 Strategy Characterization Process  Review strategies considered and/or recommended in Water Forward (WF)18  Review progress of ongoing programs  Identify additional strategies for WF24 initial list  Identify any variables (operational, scale)  Update cost and yield characterization for testing Strategy Types Water Supply Demand Management Best Management Practices • Strategies that enable • Strategies like • Strategies that advance the utility to access new sources of water and expand or make better use of existing sources of water conservation and reuse that reduce the demands on raw or potable water Water Forward objectives like protecting the health of the Colorado River and improving the utility’s resilience. Strategy Characterization Approach  As strategies will be modeled with various timing and yields in the WMS optimization analysis, each strategy generally includes a min and max yield at each planning horizon  Costs for each strategy have been generated at the 2120 max yield  Cost information includes: • Total capital cost, including facilities, contingencies, and land acquisition • Total annual costs, including debt service and operations and maintenance • Annualized unit costs in dollars per acre feet per year 2040 Supply Strategy Yield Ranges and Annualized Unit Costs Preliminary and Subject to Change 2120 Supply Strategy Yield Ranges and Annualized Unit Costs Preliminary and Subject to Change Demand Reduction Pathways  Potable water demand reduction strategies like reuse and conservation are inter-dependent and were modeled together as distinct pathways driven by potential reuse and reclaimed system options Demand Reduction Pathways Notes DR1 DR2 DR3 DR4 DR5 DR6 DR7 Utility-Side Water Loss Control Dependent Customer Side Water Use Management Dependent Native and Efficient Landscapes Dependent Centralized Reclaimed Current requirements Decentralized Reclaimed Phase 1 Onsite Reuse Larger system area Further connection distance Phase 1 & 2 Current requirements Smaller building size threshold Increased non-potable demand met x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Preliminary and Subject to Change 2040 Demand Reduction Pathway Yields Preliminary and Subject to Change 2120 Demand Reduction Pathway Yields Preliminary and Subject to Change Next Steps  Strategy costs and yields will be used as input in WMS Assessment and Vulnerability Evaluation (WAVE) Model  Top performing strategy configurations and groupings will lead to refinement of strategy yields, timing, and potentially costs  Top performing groupings will undergo 50-year portfolio evaluation Questions?