4 Backup - WF24 Population and Employment Projections — original pdf

Backup

Water Forward 2024 Population and Employment Projections Agenda How Population and Employment Projections are Used in Water Forward 2024 Process to Develop 2020 Population and Employment Estimates Process to Develop 100-year Projections Next Steps How Population and Employment Projections are Used in Water Forward 2024 AW Population & Employment Estimates are used in: State reporting Performance measures Estimating future demands Participation in regional water planning Utility plans Water Forward Disaggregated Demand Model Water supply planning Infrastructure planning Conservation plan/ TCEQ Utility report SER’s and pipe sizing Plant expansions Aligning with budget planning Pop/Emp Projections in WF24  100-year strategic planning • Greater accuracy may be possible to attain for the first 10-20 • Greater uncertainty in terms of geographic resolution and distribution for later years  Projections in this Water Forward update will include use years of ranges Overview of planning scenarios • Water availability planning scenarios allow us to plan for a range of possible future conditions. • The scenarios do not represent the probability of any particular outcome. • Historical population and employment show a huge range of growth rates; use the data to establish an envelope of plausible demands. • 5-year updates allow us to adapt to changing conditions. Total water availability planning scenarios: 639 Range of future water availability sequences to test water management strategies (WMSs) 71 Hydrologic Scenarios 3 AW Demand Scenarios 1 Period of Record (POR) sequence 10 Droughts worse than the drought of record (DWDRs) stochastically sampled from POR hydrology 15 Global climate model (GCM) flow output sequences 15 POR sequences adjusted for climate effects 30 DWDRs stochastically sampled from climate-adjusted POR Higher AW demand Baseline AW demand Lower AW demand 3 Regional Supply Scenarios Repeat of baseline regional supplies in second half of century Baseline Region K regional supplies Slower implementation of baseline Region K regional supplies Pop/Emp Projections Used to Calculate Water Use Factors Among Demand Sectors  Served Population Distribution  Employment Distribution US HighwaysStreet Name symbols (Shields)Impact Fee BoundaryCountiesLakes2015 Employment01 - 3,2693,270 - 6,7576,758 - 13,72013,721 - 25,91825,919 - 49,299DTI POLYGONSUS HighwaysStreet Name symbols (Shields)Impact Fee BoundaryCountiesLakes2015 Served Population01 - 3,1613,162 - 4,8804,881 - 6,7756,776 - 10,88310,884 - 17,467DTI POLYGONSMultifamily Single Family Single Family Multifamily Multifamily Translation to Units & Employment Sectors Units Population Employees Industrial Office Hospitals Schools Hospitality Retail Restaurant Subsectors Water Use Factor Development Commercial Multi-Family Residential Single Family Residential N Water Use Factor (WUF) Calculations Σ SF Billed Volume Σ SF Units Σ MF Billed Volume Σ MF Units Σ Restaurants Billed Volume Σ Office Billed Volume Σ of Office Employees Single Family WUF (gal/household/year ) Multi-family WUF (gal/household/year ) Restaurant Subsector WUF Office Subsector WUF (gal/employee/year ) Σ Restaurants Employees (gal/employee/year) Base Year Demand Projections How does it work? . End use calculations • Use similar graphic to slide 12 with % listed for end use boxes Projection year calculations for each DTI: Get percentages # of from Katherine projected units or employees Base Year Subsector WUF Total subsector volume for projection year Process to Develop 2020 Population and Employment Estimates AW 2020 Population Estimates  Parcel driven approach (Population = Units * PPH) • Unit counts informed by Austin Water and Energy billing, county property appraisers, HPD, and COA Addresses databases • People per home (PPH) from the 2020 Census Block data  Water use threshold for retail customers to help determine occupancy • Single-family residential: 30 gallons/home/day • Multi-family residential: Median gallons/home/day specific to the month, sector, and DTI used to determine the number of occupied units • Since this approach seeks to determine occupancy, people per occupied home (PPOH) from the Census was used  Wholesale service area • Unit counts informed by County Tax Districts, HPD, and COA Addresses databases where available • People per home (PPH) from the 2020 Census Block data • Population did not include water use or estimates of occupancy outside of what is identified by the Census, and as such used people per home (PPH) 2020 Population Served Estimates 2020 Wholesale 49,704 2020 Retail 1,034,708 Total 1,084,412 SouthWest Water Company - Windermere Utilities Inc. Creedmoor - Maha WSC City of Sunset Valley Village of San Leanna Wells Branch MUD North Austin MUD Northtown MUD Travis County WCID #10 SouthWest Water Company - Mid-Tex Utilities Inc. City of Rollingwood Aqua America - Aqua Texas - Rivercrest Water System Inc. Marsha WSC Aqua America - Aqua Texas - Nighthawk High Valley WSC Shady Hollow MUD Aqua America - Aqua Texas - Morningside TOTAL Total Population1 Sole- Source? 2 % Water Supplied from Austin Water3 2020 Population Served3 16,518 6,592 702 512 14,269 9,757 9,666 7,635 1,720 1,510 1,027 468 384 211 164 69 71,204 no no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes 0.1% 25.1% 96.1% 38.4% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 23 1,861 754 191 14,269 9,757 9,666 7,635 1,720 1,510 1,027 468 384 211 164 69 49,709 1 Billing data and Census block estimates, 3/15/2022 Systems Planning staff 2 Historical Water Use Survey Data, Texas Water Development Board, 2020 Total Water and Water from AW 3 Composite Population estimate; Systems Planning estimate and proportion of wholesale customer's population served when AW is not the sole source of water Wholesale Customers For wholesale customers with multiple water sources, population that AW serves is based on the portion of water supplied by AW (GPCD approach) Process to Develop 100-year Projections Population estimates Demographer projects totals for city and MSA Systems Planning projects totals for served W & WW DTI process assumes rate of growth for each polygon to create DTI totals Preliminary Population Projections Served Population year Low Average High 2020 1,084,400 2040 1,484,500 1,544,700 1,590,400 2080 2,354,800 2,511,000 2,649,200 2120 2,913,600 3,290,600 3,676,600 Historical & Projected Growth Rates Served Population Annual Growth Rate year Low Average High 2020-2040 1.58% 1.75% 1.92% 2040-2080 1.15% 1.21% 1.28% 2080-2120 0.53% 0.67% 0.81% Delphi, Trends, and Imagine Austin (DTI) Process Population baseline of 2020 census-informed geographically-distributed and the 100-year Control Total projections for population Reviewed draft DTI-polygon level projections based on growth rates form Water Forward 2018 Incorporated increases in population and employment represented in service extension requests for water & wastewater, Imagine Austin, & Project Connect Adjusted distribution of population and employment with Delphi Team feedback Employment Projections Water Forward 2018 Employment Projections Checked against ESRI Business Analyst product Refined with SER data and Delphi Team feedback Combined Density (people + employees/developable acre) 2020 Combined Density (people + employees/developable acre) 2040 Combined Density (people + employees/developable acre) 2080 Combined Density (people + employees/developable acre) 2120 Combined Density (people + employees/developable acre) 2020 2040 2080 2120 Next Steps Next Steps  Will seek feedback from wholesale customers on projections demand model  Will be working to incorporate data into the disaggregated Questions