Austin Integrated Water Resource Planning Community Task Force - Sept. 20, 2022

Austin Integrated Water Resource Planning Community Task Force Special Called Meeting of the Austin Integrated Water Resource Planning Community Task Force - Room 1405

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AUSTIN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCE PLANNING COMMUNITY TASK FORCE September 20th , 2022 --12:00pm Hybrid Special-Called Meeting Austin Permitting and Development Center Room 1405 6310 Wilhelmina Delco Dr, Austin, TX 78752 Some members of the BOARD/COMMISSION may be participating by videoconference. The meeting may be viewed online at: http://www.austintexas.gov/page/watch-atxn-live For more information go to: Austin Integrated Water Resource Planning Community Task Force Public comment will be allowed in-person or remotely by telephone. Speakers may only register to speak on an item once either in-person or remotely and will be allowed up to three minutes to provide their comments. Registration no later than noon the day before the meeting is required for remote participation. The first 10 speakers to register will be allowed a three-minute allotment to address their concerns not on the agenda. To register, contact Jaynell Nicholson at jaynell.nicholson@austintexas.gov. The information required is the speaker’s name, item number(s) they wish to speak on if applicable, email address and telephone number (must be the same number that will be used to call into the meeting). CURRENT TASK FORCE MEMBERS: Voting Members: Bill Moriarty Hani Michel Joshua Rolfe Perry Lorenz Sarah Faust Todd Bartee Robert Mace, Vice Chair Ex Officio Non-Voting Members: Austin Water: Kevin Critendon Austin Energy: Kathleen Garrett Austin Resource Recovery: Tony Davee Neighborhood Housing and Community Development: Tymon Khamsi Office of Innovation: Daniel Culotta Office of Sustainability: Lucia Athens Parks and Recreation: Liana Kallivoka Watershed Protection: Katie Coyne Vanessa Puig-Williams Jennifer Walker, Chair Robert Levinski AGENDA CALL TO ORDER – PUBLIC COMMUNICATION: GENERAL APPROVAL OF MINUTES 1. Approval of the meeting minutes from the Regular Task Force meeting on July 12th, 2022 DISCUSSION ITEMS 1. Update on water supply conditions, presented by Austin Water staff 2. Presentation of Water Forward 2018 implementation progress, presented by Austin Water 3. Update on Water Forward 2024 project status, presented by Austin Water staff • Overview of Equity Grounding Sessions 4. Overview of Climate and Hydrology Analysis, presented by Austin Water staff and UT staff FUTURE AGENDA ITEMS ADJOURNMENT The City of Austin is committed to compliance with the American with Disabilities Act. Reasonable modifications and equal access to communications will be provided upon request. Meeting locations are planned with wheelchair access. If requiring Sign Language Interpreters or alternative formats, please give notice at least 2 days (48 hours) before the meeting date. Please call Austin Integrated Water Resource Planning Community Task Force …

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Water Supply Update 12,10612,30610,0445,9506,8064,4287074,912025,00050,00075,000100,000125,000150,000175,000200,000225,000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecAcre-FeetHighland Lakes InflowsAverage 1942 - PresentAverage 2008 - 201520212022 (Jan.-Aug.) Current Water Supplies As of 9/16/2022, combined storage was at 1,124,922 acre-feet (56% full). 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,0002,200,0002005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Storage, acre-feetCombined Storage of Lakes Buchanan and TravisJanuary 1, 2005 through September 1, 20220.6M ac-ft2.0M ac-ft Full StorageInterruptible stored water for non-Garwood agricultural operationswas not provided by LCRA in 2012 through 2015 and for second season in 2022. NOAA 3-Month Outlook LCRA Lake Levels Forecast Source Questions

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Single Family Residential Landscape Transformation Water Conservation Division September 20, 2022  Landscape Transformation Ordinance (D5) • From traditional landscaping to plants with reduced water needs • New single-family residential • Potential limits on turf and irrigation • Savings goal of 2,490 AF (2.2 MGD) by 2040 Internal City Stakeholders  Watershed Protection Department (WPD)  Development Services Department (DSD)  Austin Energy (AE) – Green Building  Sustainability Office  Equity Office  Planning and Housing Department  Wildlife Austin (PARD) Public Meetings  Venue / Virtual Options  Activities  Public Notices  Marketing  Meetings: February and May 2022 External Stakeholder Meetings  Home Builders Association of Greater Austin (HBA) Association  Central Texas Professional Irrigation  Association of Professional Landscape Architects (ASLA)  Texas Nursery and Landscape Assoc. (TNLA – Region 8)  Environmental Advocates SpeakUp Austin, Online Public Comments, and Other Outreach  SpeakUp Austin • Comments • Free form input • Informational videos • Future Meeting Dates • Survey  Social Media Posts  Other Public Outreach Transforming landscapes to save water Build with savings Set customers up for success Encourage alternative water Build with savings Education & Enhanced Inspections Water Savings (gal/yr/home) Soil 6" with 20% compost To Be Determined (TBD) Decompacted soil Mulch 2-3” Plants from an approved plant list TBD N/A TBD Cost (per home) $800 + DSD inspection TBD + DSD inspection N/A N/A Build with savings And/Or  Limit turf grass area • Up to 50% of landscape area; 2,250 sqft max • Savings: 4,500 gal/yr/home • Cost: • DSD inspection • Add. bed cost - $6 per sqft  Limit irrigation area • Up to 50% of landscape • Savings: 9,800 gal/yr/home area • Cost: • AW inspection Set customers up for success Better irrigation Require pressure reduction devices (PRD) Irrigation inspection (post- installation) Offer new home irrigation check-ups within 90 days Water Savings (gal/yr/home) Cost (per home) 6,100 (22% savings) $400 + AW inspection 2,800 (10% savings) AW inspection 1,400 (5% savings) AW staff Encourage alternative water  Required gray water laundry to landscape plumbing • Available in all new homes  Incentivize new home rainwater harvesting • Incentivize building homes with tanks/systems • Supply: 3,500 gal • Cost: <$1,000 • Supply: 5,000 • Cost: TBD Bundling activities into scenarios In all scenarios Build with savings (soil) Setting up customers for success Encourage alternative Options Limiting turf …

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Water Forward 2024 project status update Water Forward 2024 (WF24) Project Tasks Task 1 - Project Management Task 2 - Community Engagement Task 3. Refine planning methodology Task 4. Forecast baseline water demands Task 6. Identify water resource needs Task 7. Identify, screen, and characterize strategies Task 8. Develop and evaluate 50-yr water resource portfolios Task 5. Update climate and hydrology analysis Task 9. Develop plan recommendations and 100-yr adaptive management plan WF24 Task Progress to Date & Next Steps Task Name Progress to Date Next Steps 2 Community Engagement • Launched SpeakUp Austin page • Completed first two community workshops • Completed staff Equity Training and Community Ambassadors Group / Water Forward Task Force Equity Grounding Sessions • Began initial research into Austin Water history • • Improve SpeakUp Austin Page Incorporate history findings into Austin Water timeline • Draft Equity and Affordability Roadmap • Revise draft Education and Engagement Plan • Finalize plans for Fall/Winter outreach • Further refine methodology through Fall/Winter 3 Planning Methodology • Substantial completion of WF24 modeling scenarios definition (hydrology, demands, supply) 4 Demand Forecast • Substantial completion of disaggregated demand model structural improvements • Develop small polygon-level population, unit, and employee projections 5 Climate and Hydrology Analysis • Developed hydrologic models and completed • Presentation to the Water Forward Task Force associated technical memo 9/20 • Develop streamflow series for incorporation into the WAM Planning with an Equity Lens Public input Equity Grounding for Task Force and CAG Input on Equity & Affordability (E&A) considerations Equity Training for AW staff Outreach recommendations to improve procedural equity Equity and Affordability Road Map (EARM) 1) Develop procedural equity recommendations for the plan development process 2) Develop a framework to evaluate distributive equity in plan outcomes E&A framework Education and Engagement Plan (EEP) Specific, tactical plan for how we will engage with the community Plan for engagement Potential Future Outreach Strategies to gather further input on E&A Identified in the EARM and planned in the EEP Questions and data to evaluate strategies & portfolios Equity and Affordability Tool Framework of questions and supporting spatial and other data that will be used to evaluate the distribution of benefits and burdens at the strategy and portfolio level Strategy Characterization & Portfolio Evaluation Individual strategies to be characterized in alignment with certain EAT components; Portfolios will undergo full EAT evaluation. Equity Grounding Series 8/23 Session #2 • How COA …

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Update on WF24 Climate and Hydrology Analysis September 20, 2022 Planning for Uncertainty ▪ Develop range of futures ▪ Find common near-term strategies that work for a broad range of futures ▪ Develop adaptive plan with key decision points ▪ Re-evaluate at key decision points Range of demands Possible climate futures DWDRs Regional supply trends Uncertainty in water availability Water Forward 2024 Decision points A C D B E 2125 Goals of Climate & Hydrology Analysis Update  Look at a range of possible future climate scenarios  Identify high-level climate trends in the basin  Generate climate change- adjusted streamflow data to test in the Water Forward Water Availability Model (WF WAM) Differences from 2018 WF Plan  Partnership with UT Austin  Climate technical advisory group scenarios  Looking at multiple climate  New hydrologic models Climate and Hydrology Analysis Update – Tasks 2022 2023 Task 1: Project management and external communication (WFTF, climate TAG, etc.) Task 2: Select GCMs representative of the region to use for update Task 3: Perform GCM downscaling and trend analysis Task 4A/B: Develop hydrologic models to predict streamflow from downscaled GCM outputs Task 4C: Generate time series of naturalized flows Task 5: Package flow data for use in the WF Water Availability Model Task 6: Develop stochastic drought sequences using historical and climate-adjusted hydrology Task 7: Continue coordination with WF update process (communication, presentations, reports, etc.) Through 2024 We are here Selection of GCMs  What: choose global climate models (GCMs) that best represent climate over the Colorado River Basin  Why: want to use GCMs that can best project possible climate futures for the Colorado River Basin  How: evaluate how well GCMs simulate historical climate over the Colorado River Basin and select the best performing set of models Evaluation of GCMs  Historical simulations of 35 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated on their ability to represent the following observed characteristics: Top-scoring GCMs Top 10 best-scoring GCMs based on model performance over the Colorado River Basin (CRB), as measured by skills scores (S) Model 𝑺𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍,𝑻 𝑺𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍,𝑷 𝑺𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒂𝒍,𝑵𝑫𝑫 𝑺𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒍,𝑻 𝑺𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒍,𝑷 𝑺𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒍,𝑵𝑫𝑫 𝑺𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍𝒍 Ranking CNRM-CM6-1-HR HadGEM3-GC31-MM UKESM1-0-LL HadGEM3-GC31-LL CNRM-CM6-1 CNRM-ESM2-1 KACE-1-0-G GFDL-ESM4 ACCESS-CM2 EC-Earth3 0.90 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.91 0.94 1.00 0.88 0.91 0.79 0.82 0.94 0.78 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.96 0.70 0.70 0.72 0.75 0.79 0.81 0.77 …

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