20250709-005 Austin Demographic Trends and Population Change - Presentation — original pdf

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Austin Demographic Trends and Population Change Airport Advisory Commission July 9, 2025 The city of Austin is the principal city of the Austin Metro Area, the 4th fastest-growing region in the country. Population Change 3 The Austin metro area is now the 4th fastest-growing large metro in the country, sliding downward after holding the top spot between 2010-2022. 2024 Population Numeric Change, 2023-2024 Percent Change, 2023-2024 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Raleigh-Cary, NC Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Jacksonville, FL .Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL .Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Vintage Population Estimates. 2,940,513 7,796,182 1,562,009 2,550,637 8,344,032 2,883,370 1,760,548 6,457,988 2,398,871 2,763,006 75,969 198,171 39,165 58,019 177,922 61,176 37,350 123,471 44,586 47,297 2.65 2.61 2.57 2.33 2.18 2.17 2.17 1.95 1.89 1.74 4 Rapid growth in the region is driven by suburban cities, which are among the nation’s fastest growing places. However, rate of growth in these cities is also slowing down. U.S. Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13 18 49 71 75 Cities 2024 Population Numeric Change, 2023-2024 Percent Change, 2023-2024 Princeton, TX Fulshear, TX Leesburg, FL Celina, TX Anna, TX Haines City, FL Foley, AL Fate, TX Rosemount, MN Garner, NC Hutto, TX Leander, TX Manor, TX Georgetown, TX Kyle, TX 37,019 54,629 37,815 51,661 31,986 42,073 28,043 27,467 30,581 39,345 42,661 87,511 21,500 101,344 65,833 8,683 11,596 5,902 7,961 4,077 4,535 3,012 2,801 2,927 3,691 3,681 7,004 1,175 4,613 2,962 30.6 26.9 18.5 18.2 14.6 12.1 12.0 11.4 10.6 10.4 9.4 8.7 5.8 4.8 4.7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Vintage Population Estimates. 5 Travis County growth is slower than other Austin metro counties but leads in growth among international migrants. Without it, the county could have experienced overall population decline. County Population Estimate Change, 2023-2024 Components of Change July 1, 2023 July 1, 2024 Number Percent Natural Increase Domestic Migration International Migration Travis 1,348,043 1,363,767 15,724 Williamson Hays Bastrop Caldwell 701,640 281,697 111,131 50,107 727,480 25,840 292,029 10,332 114,931 52,430 3,800 2,323 1.2 3.7 3.7 3.4 4.6 62% 16% 15% 12% 8% -86% 60% 72% 83% 83% 124% 26% 13% 6% 9% Domestic migration continues to boost growth to other counties within the Austin Metro. Caldwell County ranked 9th among the nation’s fastest-growing counties between 2023 and 2024, with most of its growth stemming from domestic migration. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Vintage 2024. 6 Austin has a long-sustained history of growth, but recent growth is slowing. Austin Population, 1870 to 2030 • Austin had been doubling its population every 20-25 years. • Austin grew by nearly 3% annually between 2010 and 2020. • Between 2020-2023, Austin grew by less than 2%. • Internal estimates indicate in 2023, Austin had 1,026,459 residents. Historical Population Estimated Population Projected Population 7 Migration continues to drive growth in Austin, with significant impacts on housing and where people live. • Migration contributes on average over 70% of all population growth. • Migration-driven growth can have immediate impacts. Average Shares of Population Change, 2011-2021 • Housing unit development rates are not keeping pace with household formation rates. Unit Development Rate 25.5% Household Formation Rate 26.5% 8 As the population has grown, there have been significant demographic shifts in the geographic distribution of the population. 2000 2010 2020 9 Affordability Challenges 10 Growth in costs has outpaced growth in incomes in Austin. Median household incomes in Austin grew by 37% between 2013 and 2023, growing from $66,642 to $91,501 (in 2023 dollars). Median home sale prices in Austin grew by 85% between 2013 to 2023, from $292k to $540k. Rents in Austin grew by 33% between 2013 to 2023, rising from $1,324 to $1,764. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; ABoR Market Report; Note: dollar figures in 2023 dollars. 11 Affordability pressures disproportionately impact households of color. Incomes of Black and Hispanic households grew fastest, but White household incomes remain 1.6 and 1.4 times greater than Black households and Latinx households and 2.2 and 1.95 times greater than Black and Latinx family households, respectively. While 37% of Austin households are housing cost burdened, housing costs burden 54% and 40% of Black and Hispanic households and 1 in 5 Black and Latinx households are extremely housing cost burdened. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; University of Washington, Self-Sufficiency Standard Data 12 Demographic Shifts 13 Demographic shifts in Austin this last decade are unique and distinct from national and state trends. Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, NH 0.1% Some Other Race, NH 0.5% Two or More Races, NH 3.9% Asian, NH 8.9% Hispanic or Latino 32.5% American Indian and Alaska Native, NH 0.2% Black or African American, NH 6.9% White, NH 47.1% • The NH White population is the largest driver of growth in Austin. • The Asian population is the fastest- growing single race group. • The Hispanic population contributed 20% of total growth last decade even as it’s share of the total population declined for the first time. • The Black population also grew, but at a very slow rate and continued to shrink in share of the total population. 14 Diversity within Austin’s Hispanic Population Top 10 Origins of Hispanic Austinites, 2023 Population Share of Hispanic Total Population Percent Change, 2012-2023 Mexican Honduran Spaniard or Spanish Salvadoran Cuban Puerto Rican Guatemalan Colombian Venezuelan 235,342 10,590 10,080 9,054 8,940 6,987 5,281 5,091 4,427 73.6% 3.3% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% -6.4% 83.2% 55.4% 5.4% 186.1% 20.2% 34.3% 114.4% 280.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013, 2023 1-Year Estimates 15 Diversity within Austin’s Asian Population Top 10 Origins of Asian Austinites, 2023 Total Asian Population Asian Indian Chinese Vietnamese Korean Filipino Pakistani Two or more Asian groups Taiwanese Nepalese Japanese Other Asian countries Share of Asian Total Population 93,533 37.6% 19.0% 12.0% 8.2% 5.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 4.5% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2023 1-Year Estimates derived from 5-year distribution 16 Austin’s immigrant population originates from over 120 countries and speak over 45 languages. Austin Immigrant Population, 1970 to 2023 200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2022 2023 Top 20 Countries of Origin of Austin Immigrant Population, 2023 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Mexico India 11. Canada 12. The Philippines Honduras 13. Taiwan China* Vietnam Cuba 14. Nigeria 15. Colombia 16. Pakistan Guatemala 17. Germany El Salvador 18. Brazil Korea 19. Afghanistan 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Austin Immigrant Population Share of Total Population 10. Venezuela 20. Iran Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1970-1990; American Community Survey 2010, 2023 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2023 Note: *excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan Increased diversity in Austin can obscure losses among some populations. All race/ethnicity groups have grown since 2010. Black and Hispanic shares of the total Austin population have declined. There are fewer Black and Latino children in Austin today. Black and Latino family households with children have also declined. 18 Future Growth in Austin The Austin metro is projected to surpass the San Antonio metro area and grow to over 5 million by 2060. Large Texas Metro Population Projections, 2020 - 2060 s n o i l l i M 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 7.6 7.1 2.6 2.3 12.4 11.4 5.2 4.4 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands San Antonio-New Braunfels Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2022 Population Projections, 2010-2020 Migration Scenario 20 Population growth is projected to vary across the region, with Hays County growing most rapidly and Williamson and Travis adding the greatest numbers. Austin MSA County 2020 Population 2060 Projection Numeric Change, 2020 - 2060 Percent Change, 2020 - 2060 Bastrop Caldwell Hays Travis Williamson Austin Metro 97,216 45,883 223,711 76,291 241,067 1,003,130 1,290,188 2,252,137 126,495 30,408 762,063 961,949 609,017 1,682,556 1,073,539 2,283,371 5,237,825 2,954,454 Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2022 Population Projections, 2010-2020 Migration Scenario 130% 66% 316% 75% 176% 129% 21 Austin is projected to grow to between 1.3 and 1.7 million by 2060. City of Austin Population Projections, 2020 - 2060 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2010s Migration Scenario 1,740,710 1,336,769 Half 2010s Migration Scenario 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Source: City of Austin, 2024 Population Projections 22 Delphi, Trends, and Imagine Austin Population and Employment Forecast 24 City of Austin Demographics Website austintexas.gov/demographics Quick Stats Demographic Profiles for various geographies Interactive maps and story maps Library with additional resources Subscribe to emails and data request form 25 Q & A 26 Thank you! Lila Valencia, Ph.D. City Demographer lila.valencia@austintexas.gov